383
FXUS64 KOUN 181715
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1212 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING.
- ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS END OF THIS WEEK
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRODUCED BY TONIGHT'S
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY, WITH THE BOUNDARY ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR OR JUST
NORTH/SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH THE MAIN
UPPER VORTICITY MAXIMA DEPARTING WITH TONIGHT'S ACTIVITY AND A VERY
SUBTLE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE APPROACHING, THE ACTIVITY TODAY AND THIS
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN.
STRONG INSTABILITY (4000+ J/KG), 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-40KNOTS,
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS ANTICIPATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL (2+ INCHES) AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (60-70 MPH)
POSSIBLE. EFFECTIVE SRH (150-250 M2/S2) NEAR THE BOUNDARY COULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. THE SEVERE RISK EXTENDS INTO
LATE EVENING WITH STORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHING BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
THE UPPER RIDGE THEN MOVES OVER THE PLAINS AND WINDS BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY WITH INCREASED SOUTH WINDS ON
FRIDAY. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
WARM, BREEZY, AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS THIS TAF PERIOD. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, MAINLY IN
PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. STRONG VARIABLE WINDS
AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS. DUE TO A
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA, WITH ADDITIONAL BOUNDARIES POSSIBLE DUE TO
OUTFLOW, SHIFTING WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WINDS
SHOULD OVERALL BECOME SOUTHERLY THURSDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 87 70 93 74 / 50 20 0 0
HOBART OK 91 70 97 74 / 10 20 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 73 96 76 / 10 20 0 0
GAGE OK 87 64 94 72 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 85 67 91 72 / 40 0 0 0
DURANT OK 91 74 92 75 / 20 30 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...25
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