443
FXUS64 KOUN 181952
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
252 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 244 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
- ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD SEE HEAT INDICES FROM 100-105 DEGREES
FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. OUR COLD FRONT/SURFACE MOISTURE
BOUNDARY WAS STALLED ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WHILE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. EXPECTING MUCH OF THE
STRATUS TO ERODE OR BREAK UP AT LEAST NORTH OF I-44 AS AFTERNOON
HEATING DESTABILIZES THE AIR AND BREAKING THE MID-LEVEL CAP FOR
CONVECTION INITIATION. ALTHOUGH THE CAP SHOULD HOLD NEAR AND WELL
BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT, EXPECTING INITIATION SOUTH OF I-40 WITH
THE HIGHER SEVERE RISK NEAR, SOUTH, AND EAST OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR
WHERE THE STRONGEST MOISTURE & INSTABILITY WILL BE. STRONG SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY UP TO 4000 J/KG OF CAPE IN THE HIGHER RISK AREA
COULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH
TORNADOS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS, THAT RISK WILL BE LOWER
AS THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES DECREASE WITH THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.
EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION TO RAMP DOWN TOWARD THE MIDNIGHT HOURS WHEN
STORM POPS ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF OUR FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. STARTS BUILDING IN ON THURSDAY
STARTING A DRYING TREND AS FAR AS RAINFALL. WE'LL ALSO SEE HOTTER
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGING WITH WIDESPREAD
90S HIGHS. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING IT BREEZY AND A BIT GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHILE MIXING INTO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET FLOW. MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MUGGY/HUMID
CONDITIONS AS WELL PRODUCING 100-105 DEGREE HEAT INDICES ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
WARM, BREEZY, AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS THIS TAF PERIOD. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, MAINLY IN
PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. STRONG VARIABLE WINDS
AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS. DUE TO A
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA, WITH ADDITIONAL BOUNDARIES POSSIBLE DUE TO
OUTFLOW, SHIFTING WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WINDS
SHOULD OVERALL BECOME SOUTHERLY THURSDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 93 74 94 / 20 0 0 0
HOBART OK 70 97 74 98 / 20 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 96 76 97 / 30 0 0 0
GAGE OK 64 94 72 96 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 67 92 72 95 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 75 93 75 94 / 30 10 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...25
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