166
FXUS64 KOUN 191144
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
644 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 639 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH LOCALIZED DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE FOR PARTS EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO NEAR 105 DEG POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TOMORROW.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS NEXT MONDAY NIGHT TO
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
SHIFTED LOW POPS INTO EAST-CENTRAL AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (NEAR/ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY).
ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL WITH MOISTURE POOLING BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AND LIGHT WINDS.
THOMPSON
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
THE 00Z RAOB AT 500MB SHOWS WIDESPREAD HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES, COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE 00Z HREF INDICATES A
MEDIUM-LOW CHANCE (30-40%) OF DENSE FOG NEAR STILLWATER, GUTHRIE,
CARNEY, AND CUSHING.
THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL
MIX OUT WHILE LIFTING NORTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN,
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SHIFT S/SE-LY BY MID-DAY. MEANWHILE, A LEE-SIDE
TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE
DISSIPATION OF THE FRONT, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE 90'S THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70'S, IT WILL
FEEL UNCOMFORTABLY HOT AND HUMID. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE LOW 100'S.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
FROM DIURNAL HEATING, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. CHANCES
ARE LESS THAN 10%.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD, WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH SETTLING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON FRIDAY. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES LESS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE PLUME OF HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST WITH THE RIDGE. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90'S
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 TO 103 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE BOTH
DAYS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY.
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH RETURN FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS
LIKE SUMMER IS FINALLY HERE TO STAY LITTLE VARIATION IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES (90S) AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. WHILE IT WILL FEEL
HUMID, HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE PROG'D TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS 30% FOR
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING.
THESE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 4000 TO
6000 FT AGL.
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 92 74 92 74 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 96 74 96 74 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 95 76 96 75 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 95 72 96 74 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 90 72 93 77 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 92 75 92 75 / 10 10 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...10
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