996
FXUS64 KOUN 200349
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1049 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1017 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
- HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 103 DEG POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA.
- WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS NEXT MONDAY NIGHT TO FAR
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BUT OTHERWISE A DRY PATTERN.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STARTING OUR HEATING TREND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAD ALREADY WASHED
OUT MUCH OF OUR SYNOPTIC SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
REPLACING IT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID SURFACE 70S DEWPOINTS WITH
HEAT INDICES ON THE RISE.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF VERY LOW POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/
MOISTURE ARE IN PLACE AND A WEAK CAP. CAMS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
FOR SEVERAL MODEL RUNS FOR A FEW STORMS PULSING UP IN OUR SOUTHEAST
CWA. ALTHOUGH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS LOW-END MODERATE WITH THE
HRRR SOLUTION, A FEW OTHER SOLUTIONS SUCH AS RAP & NAM DIFFER WITH A
STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH A LOW-END SEVERE RISK IS IN
PLACE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
STRONG STORM SHOULD ANY DEVELOP WHILE DCAPE VALUES WOULD SUPPORT
STRONG DOWNDRAFT WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER SHEAR IS WEAK AND NO OTHER
BOUNDARY IS NEARBY SO ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE UNORGANIZED AND SHORT-
LIVED PULSE-TYPE WITH PERHAPS SOME WIND. SHOULD ANY HEAT-DRIVEN
STORMS DEVELOP IN OUR SOUTHEAST THEY WOULD END BY SUNDOWN WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
OUR UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD MAINTAINING ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO UPPER 90S HIGHS EACH DAY. HEAT INDICES IN
THE AFTERNOONS WILL RISE TO TRIPLE DIGITS FROM 100-103 DEGREES.
ALTHOUGH HOT & MUGGY CONDITIONS, IT WILL BE BREEZY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING SOME RELIEF OUTSIDE AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE. LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN THROUGH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
FURTHER TIGHTEN THE SURFACE ISOBARS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH MORE
WINDIER CONDITIONS (20-25 MPH SUSTAINED) FOR SATURDAY. WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JETS FRIDAY & SATURDAY NIGHTS, AFTERNOON MIXING UP TO THE
850-MB FLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR 30-40 MPH GUSTS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NBM DEFAULT IS FAIRLY REPRESENTATIVE HANDLING
THE WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, DID ADJUST THEM SLIGHTLY HIGHER ONLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST CWA USING THE NBM 95TH PERCENTILE WINDS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH RETURN FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS
LIKE SUMMER IS FINALLY HERE TO STAY LITTLE VARIATION IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES (90S) AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. WHILE IT WILL FEEL
HUMID, HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE PROG'D TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS 30% FOR
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY STREAM ACROSS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT,
OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP QUICKLY TOMORROW
MORNING WITH GUSTS OVER 30KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST. MUCH LIKE
TODAY, DAYTIME CU IS EXPECTED BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY FRIDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 74 93 75 92 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 74 97 75 96 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 76 96 76 96 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 72 96 74 95 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 73 95 76 93 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 76 94 76 94 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...30
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