031
FXUS64 KOUN 201117
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
617 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 613 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
- HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 103 DEG POSSIBLE TODAY AND
CONTINUED VALUES UP TO 100 THROUGH NEXT WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA.
- BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS NEXT MONDAY NIGHT TO FAR
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITH INCREASED CHANCES AGAIN BY MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TODAY WITH AN UPPER LOW
PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE EJECTING AHEAD OF
THE MAIN LOW INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING LEE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH AN INCREASING 850MB JET
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING WITH NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 90S. ADDITIONALLY, DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING TO NEAR 100-105 ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
AND INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WARM, BREEZY AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE MID 70S.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, DAILY LEE LOWS WILL DEVELOP WITH 30-40 KNOT 850MB JETS EACH
DAY STRETCHING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE WARM AND BREEZY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR SOME MUGGY
CONDITIONS AND HEAT INDICES UP TO 100. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BECOME PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK, THE NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL KEEP A CONTINUOUS TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. BY MONDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD BRINGING SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE AREA. THUS,
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL EARLY ON IN THE WEEK. BY
WARMER WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A FEW DEGREES, WHICH COULD MAKE THE
DIFFERENCE IN HEAT INDICES BREACHING TRIPLE DIGITS AND APPROACHING
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THERE IS A LOW-TO-MEDIUM (20-50) CHANCE OF
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT NEXT WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, BUT
MORE SPECIFICALLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PUMPING GULF MOISTURE
INTO TEXAS AND NORTHWARD, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
AND INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW, BUT WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE AND THE UPPER
HIGH BEING COMPRESSED FARTHER EAST. THE LOW-END RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE WEEK WILL BE CONFINED TO MOSTLY NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITH THE SUB-
TROPICAL JET JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. ANY SUBTLE CHANGE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST OR WESTWARD WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN RAIN
CHANCES. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO OCCUR.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND PERHAPS
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BECOME RATHER
BREEZY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET MAY RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AFTER 4-6Z SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY AT PNC/SWO.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 93 75 92 74 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 97 75 96 74 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 96 76 95 75 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 96 74 95 73 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 94 76 93 76 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 95 76 93 75 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...06
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