097
FXUS64 KOUN 202259
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
559 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 538 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
- HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 100 DEGREES THROUGH NEXT WEEK ACROSS MUCH
OF OUR AREA.
- BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS NEXT MONDAY NIGHT TO FAR
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITH INCREASED CHANCES AGAIN BY MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF NEAR 100 TO 105 DEGREES COMMON ACROSS THE AREA.
BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE AT LEAST HELPED TO TAKE THE
EDGE OFF THE HEAT A BIT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. BREEZY AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THIS
WEEKEND AS TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN US. THE BULK OF THE
JET STREAM ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST, WHICH IS WHERE MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL FOCUS. THEREFORE, EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF HOT,
DRY, AND HUMID CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR 100 EACH AFTERNOON ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.
WARE
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK, THE NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL KEEP A CONTINUOUS TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. BY MONDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD BRINGING SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE AREA. THUS,
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL EARLY ON IN THE WEEK. BY
WARMER WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A FEW DEGREES, WHICH COULD MAKE THE
DIFFERENCE IN HEAT INDICES BREACHING TRIPLE DIGITS AND APPROACHING
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THERE IS A LOW-TO-MEDIUM (20-50) CHANCE OF
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT NEXT WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, BUT
MORE SPECIFICALLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PUMPING GULF MOISTURE
INTO TEXAS AND NORTHWARD, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
AND INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW, BUT WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE AND THE UPPER
HIGH BEING COMPRESSED FARTHER EAST. THE LOW-END RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE WEEK WILL BE CONFINED TO MOSTLY NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITH THE SUB-
TROPICAL JET JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. ANY SUBTLE CHANGE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST OR WESTWARD WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN RAIN
CHANCES. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO OCCUR.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST . EVEN
WITH THIS THERE WILL BE SOME LLWS AT SITES ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS LLJ DEVELOPS BY LATE EVENING. WINDS PICK UP
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS
TO 35KTS ACROSS THE WEST. FEW DAYTIME CU WILL AGAIN OCCUR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 76 92 74 91 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 76 96 74 95 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 77 95 75 94 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 74 95 73 92 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 76 93 75 92 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 76 93 74 93 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...30
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