622
FXUS64 KOUN 240359
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1059 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1055 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
- HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 100 DEGREES, WITH A FEW AREAS OF UP TO
105 DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
IT'S ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY OUT THERE, WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN
PLACE TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN A BIT LESS
THAN RECENT DAYS, BUT STILL BREEZY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED WITHIN A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS KANSAS. WITH STEERING FLOW LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE TROUGH,
THESE STORMS WILL LARGELY REMAIN ALONG THIS CORRIDOR, BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO PUSHING FURTHER EAST INTO OUR FAR
WEST/NORTHWEST. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING LOCALLY
ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME. STORMS
WILL MAINLY POSE A RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS BEFORE
WEAKENING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE, DRY BUT MUGGY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL RETREAT FURTHER WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
LOWERING STORM CHANCES ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, WITH WEAK
CAPPING AND AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE, DAILY LOW (~ 10%) CHANCES OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR WEAK STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
SURFACE MOISTURE WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO HEAT INDICES APPROACHING
100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON IN MANY LOCATIONS.
WARE
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS NOT
LOOKING TOO PROMISING FOR RELIEF IN THESE HOT TEMPERATURES, SUMMER
IS OFFICIALLY HERE! TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CREEP WARMER THROUGH
THE BACK END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND TOWARDS TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT WITH NO END IN SIGHT FOR THESE MUGGY CONDITIONS, AT LEAST
FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD
TOWARDS ARKLATEX BY NEXT WEEKEND. DURING THIS MOVEMENT, SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING SOME INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, BUT A BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME TOMORROW. FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS BETWEEN 4000 TO 6000 FT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 74 92 72 92 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 74 95 72 95 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 74 94 73 94 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 72 93 70 93 / 30 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 73 93 72 93 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 74 93 73 92 / 0 0 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...10
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