561
FXUS64 KOUN 251110
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
610 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 601 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
- HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 100 DEGREES, WITH A FEW AREAS OF UP TO
105 DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
WITH GREATER CHANCES AREA-WIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
A WEAK DISTURBANCE OR TWO ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST. THIS ALONG WITH RATHER
HIGH PWAT VALUES WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IF STORMS DEVELOP, LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
COULD OCCUR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE DIURNAL, BUT SOME MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE,
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, AND HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100
DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
ON THURSDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS, A
DISTURBANCE ACROSS NEW MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY MOVE INTO PARTS OF WESTERN
AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST PART
OF FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. AT THIS TIME CHANCES
ARE LOW (LESS THAN 20%).
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
THE CENTER OF AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND (SATURDAY). THIS
SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH HOTTER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 90S TO NEAR 100. ON SUNDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS MAY PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN KANSAS. THE FRONT, ALONG
WITH INCREASE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE, WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND A WEAK FRONT BOUNDARY, RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES WILL BE THE (30-50%) RANGE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF OKLAHOMA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES
WITH INCREASING CUMULUS CLOUDS AT AROUND 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE NEAR OR AFTER SUNSET.
COULD SEE AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP NEAR DUA,
BUT CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 30 PERCENT. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY AT CSM
AND WWR WHERE WINDS MAY BE AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SIMILAR TO THE CLOUD COVER, THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH NEAR OR AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 90 72 91 73 / 10 10 10 10
HOBART OK 93 72 94 72 / 0 10 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 92 73 93 74 / 10 10 10 0
GAGE OK 91 70 92 69 / 0 10 20 30
PONCA CITY OK 91 72 91 71 / 0 10 10 30
DURANT OK 90 73 92 74 / 30 10 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...23
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