445
FXUS64 KOUN 252355
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
655 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 645 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
- HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 100 DEGREES, WITH A FEW AREAS OF UP TO
105 DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA.
- STORM CHANCES ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR AREA TOMORROW WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DOWNBURSTS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE "SOUP ZONE" OF 70-72 DEWPOINTS FROM SOUTHEAST TO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY SPATIALLY LIMITED IN
COVERAGE AND SMALL IN SIZE, SO MOST PEOPLE WON'T SEE RAIN. IF YOU
ARE LUCKY/UNLUCKY ENOUGH TO GET A SHOWER TODAY, BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE
THE MAIN CONCERN. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW THOSE SHOWERS
CHANCE TO PHASE OUT BY 9 PM.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ABATE SOME TONIGHT, AND WITH IT THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70-73 RANGE.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
THE DOMINANT RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN
AND SHIFT EAST TOMORROW MORNING. IN ITS WAKE, WEAK TROUGHING WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING WILL BE QUITE NEBULOUS ACROSS OUR
AREA, BUT ALL WEEK WE HAVE SEEN SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH ABSOLUTELY ZERO FORCING. THEREFORE, IT STANDS TO
REASON THAT WE WILL SEE STORMS DEVELOP TOWARD MID-AFTERNOON,
POTENTIALLY ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH INDUCED BY SURFACE HEATING IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE NEARLY NONEXISTENT, SO
SINGLE-CELL OR MULTICELL MODE IS LIKELIEST. WITH THAT SAID, THERE
WILL BE AROUND 2,000 J/KG OF MLCAPE, UP TO 1,200 J/KG OF DCAPE, AND
PWATS WILL BE 1.50-1.70, ALL OF WHICH ARE FAVORABLE FOR WATER-LADEN
DOWNBURSTS EARLY IN THE STORM LIFECYCLE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN AT OR A
LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE.
ABOUT 20 KNOTS OF NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE CREST OF THE ROCKIES. THAT
MEANS THAT AT THE VERY LEAST WE'LL BE WATCHING FOR STORMS TO TRY TO
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OFF OF THE HIGH TERRAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT. WHETHER ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY MATERIALIZES AND WHERE IT
WOULD BE IS TBD. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AT OR MAYBE A
SMIDGE BELOW AVERAGE.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
THE CENTER OF AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND (SATURDAY). THIS
SHOULD BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH HOTTER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 90S TO NEAR 100. ON SUNDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS MAY PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN KANSAS. THE FRONT, ALONG
WITH INCREASE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE, WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND A WEAK FRONT BOUNDARY, RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES WILL BE THE (30-50%) RANGE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF OKLAHOMA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
GENERALLY UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. A FEW SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THERE IS CHANCE KDUA COULD
BE IMPACTED BEFORE SUNSET.
OTHERWISE, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MID TO LATE MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE ACROSS WESTERN INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 72 90 72 91 / 10 20 20 30
HOBART OK 72 93 71 94 / 10 30 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 92 74 93 / 0 20 20 10
GAGE OK 70 90 69 93 / 10 30 30 10
PONCA CITY OK 72 91 72 90 / 10 20 30 30
DURANT OK 73 91 74 93 / 10 10 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...10
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