132
FXUS64 KOUN 261137
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
637 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 630 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
- HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 100 DEGREES, WITH A FEW AREAS OF UP TO
105 DEGREES.
- A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA INDICATE
CEILING HEIGHTS ARE ROUGHLY 8-10K FEET. THERE SHOULD BE JUST
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY (100- 150 J/KG) ABOVE THIS LAYER FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY/MID MORNING
HOURS TODAY.
IT APPEARS THAT BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON, DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
SHOULD RESULT IN BOUNDARY LAYER THUNDERSTORMS. RECENT CAMS AND MORE
PARTICULARLY THE HRRR, SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR FROM NEAR CHEROKEE
SOUTHWEST TO CLINTON AND FREDERICK. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE
CURRENT ORIENTATION OF THE CLOUDS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THEIR
MOVEMENT. REGARDLESS, AFTERNOON STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
WITHIN A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75+ (IN.).
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2,000 J/KG, SO PULSE LIKE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CAMS ALSO
SUGGEST A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER CORES WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME TEMPORARY FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY URBAN AREAS. NEW STORMS WILL FORM ALONG CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH PERHAPS A PREFERENCE TO THE EAST. DURING
THE EARLY TO MID EVENING, THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN STORM
INTENSITY, BUT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER. BLENDED POP
GUIDANCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A LITTLE UNSURE ABOUT THIS, BUT
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE AS IS.
TEMPERATURE WILL STILL BE RATHER HOT TODAY, MAINLY LOWER 90S WITH
PERHAPS SOME MID TO UPPER 80S WHERE MID CLOUDS ARE MORE PERSISTENT.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
GIVEN THE RATHER HIGH PWATS AND SOME HINTS OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
SKIRTING MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WILL NOT BE ZERO. RECENT HRRR RUNS EVEN SUGGEST A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON STORMS FRIDAY ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA. DAY-TO-DAY PREDICTABILITY CAN CERTAINLY BE A CHALLENGE
WITHIN WEAKLY SHEAR/MOIST ENVIRONMENTS. FOR NOW, IT APPEARS STORMS
WILL LIKELY FORM FRIDAY, BUT STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES. MODELS STILL SUGGEST WEAK
HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR SATURDAY, SO PERHAPS EVEN FEWER STORMS ON
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
LATE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES
REGION, WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT CLOSER TO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY
MONDAY. IT'S POSSIBLE FOR STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAT STORMS WILL ENTER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A
DECENT LOW-LEVEL JET MAY HELP, AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
RATHER WEAK (MAINLY BELOW 20 KNOTS). WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR/IN THE AREA, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE 30-50% RANGE AT LEAST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING RATHER WEAK, STORMS AND
CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT A RIDGE MAY BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN, WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
PROB30S WERE INCLUDED FOR MOST SITES EXCEPT SPS AND DUA, WHERE
CONFIDENCE WAS LOWER THAT STORMS WOULD DEVELOP THAT FAR SOUTH AND
EAST. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, LIGHTNING AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITY ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS.
OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT ALL SITES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN
THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 90 73 91 74 / 20 20 30 10
HOBART OK 93 72 94 72 / 30 30 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 92 74 93 75 / 20 20 10 0
GAGE OK 89 68 93 70 / 30 50 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 89 71 91 72 / 20 40 30 20
DURANT OK 91 73 92 75 / 10 10 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...23
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