471
FXUS64 KOUN 270416
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1116 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1107 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
- A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY TO MIDAFTERNOON -
IN FACT, BY THE TIME OF THIS AFD BEING PUBLISHED THEY MIGHT BE
GETTING GOING. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH LITTLE-TO-NO-
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THAT MEANS WE'LL EXPECT SHORT-LIVED, SLOW-MOVING
UPDRAFTS WHOSE MAIN CONCERN IS BRIEF DOWNPOURS, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN STORM COVERAGE EARLY
TONIGHT AS LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING STABILIZES THE SURFACE LAYER.
AFTER THAT, THERE'S A SIGNAL IN CAM GUIDANCE FOR STORMS TO GET
GOING AGAIN IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
ALONG THE NOSE OF A 20-30 KNOT LLJ. FLOODING CONCERN WITH ALL OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF ANY
ONE THUNDERSTORM, BUT WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES, WE
CERTAINLY WON'T RULE IT OUT. TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE WESTWARD BACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE US WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW. THAT'S GOING TO LEAD TO A FEW DAYS WITH HIGHER
THETA-E VALUES ACROSS OUR AREA. TOMORROW MAY BE MORE OF AN INCREASE
IN HUMIDITY THAN OUTRIGHT TEMPERATURES - SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS PWATS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. STORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE MORNING THROUGH THE DAYTIME IN
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA, PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD
THAT THERE WILL BE CONVECTION ONGOING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT
DAYBREAK. SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR, BUT
WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS AND SOME HYDRO ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE.
HEIGHT RISES WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WON'T GO AWAY
ENTIRELY BUT THE ODDS ARE THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. WE
HAVEN'T QUITE CLEARED THE HUMIDITY OUT OF THE AIRMASS EITHER, SO
TEMPERATURES WON'T MAKE A RUN AT 100 (EXCEPT FOR POTENTIALLY IN THE
TERRAIN-FAVORED SPOTS FOR HOT TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS), BUT THEY WILL GET INTO THE MID-90S IN MOST
SPOTS.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
LATE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES
REGION, WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT CLOSER TO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY
MONDAY. IT'S POSSIBLE FOR STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAT STORMS WILL ENTER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A
DECENT LOW-LEVEL JET MAY HELP, AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
RATHER WEAK (MAINLY BELOW 20 KNOTS). WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR/IN THE AREA, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE 30-50% RANGE AT LEAST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING RATHER WEAK, STORMS AND
CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT A RIDGE MAY BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW AT MOST TERMINALS. PROB30S WERE INCLUDED AT MOST
TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. GUSTY, CHAOTIC WINDS AND BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73 90 73 94 / 40 30 10 10
HOBART OK 72 94 72 97 / 40 20 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 75 93 74 96 / 40 20 0 0
GAGE OK 68 92 70 96 / 30 20 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 71 90 72 91 / 40 30 20 10
DURANT OK 74 93 75 94 / 10 20 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...10
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