758
FXUS64 KOUN 271051
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
551 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 541 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
- DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE, WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100
DEGREES MOST AFTERNOONS.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
AMPLE MOISTURE AND AT LEAST WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAVE ALLOWED
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING, SO
FAR MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD, AIDED BY SEVERAL MCV'S MEANDERING ACROSS
THE AREA. WE MAY SEE A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE A REIGNITION OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION. OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS LOW GIVEN FAIRLY
UNORGANIZED NATURE OF CONVECTION, BUT AS WE SAW YESTERDAY CAN'T
RULE OUT ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DUE TO WET
MICROBURSTS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, THOUGH
COVERAGE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AND WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON HOW
CONVECTION EVOLVES TODAY AND ANY REMNANT MCV'S IN THE AREA.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH
AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE, HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100
DEGREES IN MANY SPOTS EACH AFTERNOON IN AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE
EXTENSIVE RAIN/CLOUD COVERAGE.
WARE
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RETREAT TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
US EARLY NEXT WEEK, PLACING OUR AREA IN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
AREA WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GENERALLY LOW OWING TO WEAK WIND SHEAR, BUT WITH PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AND A FRONT IN THE AREA, MONDAY MAY OFFER A
RELATIVELY GREATER RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COMPARED
TO THE DAYS PRECEDING IT. AT LEAST ISOLATED RAIN/STORM CHANCES
THEN LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK FOR AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE AREA, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE LOW 90S.
WARE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING, WITH GREATEST COVERAGE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL, AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AS THE MORNING CONVECTION
WANES BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT LOCATION/TIMING OF THESE STORMS IS LOW,
SO PROB30'S WERE INTRODUCED AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE ENTIRE
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION COULD LAST INTO TONIGHT AS WELL, BUT EVEN
LOWER CONFIDENCE PRECLUDED MENTION AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 88 73 92 73 / 30 20 20 20
HOBART OK 92 71 96 72 / 30 20 20 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 75 95 76 / 20 10 10 10
GAGE OK 91 69 93 70 / 20 20 10 20
PONCA CITY OK 90 71 93 72 / 30 40 20 30
DURANT OK 91 74 93 74 / 30 10 10 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...08
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