822
FXUS64 KOUN 280759
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
259 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 233 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
- DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE, WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 DEGREES
MOST AFTERNOONS.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOST NUMEROUS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT MCV THAT MOVED
ACROSS OUR AREA YESTERDAY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT HAS
BEEN OBSERVED IN THE LAST HOUR ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ALSO
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, BUT OVERALL EXPECT
LESS IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE THIS MORNING THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE
PAST FEW DAYS.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES ARE FORECAST OVER THE
REGION AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN POSITIONED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST US BEGINS TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER
OR NOT THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
AN OTHERWISE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH NO APPARENT MCV'S OVER
THE AREA TO HELP SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR INITIATION, CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED, SO POPS WERE CAPPED AT
15%. HIGHS WILL INCH SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES MENTIONED EARLIER, BUT OVERALL THE CHANGE
SHOULD NOT BE THAT NOTICEABLE COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT WESTWARD SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, BRINGING A PATTERN TRANSITION TOWARDS WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. MUCH OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY, BUT BY SUNDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE CONVECTION WORKING ITS WAY
INTO NORTHWEST/WESTERN OKLAHOMA, AIDED BY A WEAK FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
OUT OF KANSAS. AS THIS FRONT SLOWS OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY,
EXPECT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR, BUT COULD STILL
SEE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A RISK
MONDAY GIVEN A HIGH PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE AND RELATIVELY SLOW
STORM MOTIONS.
WARE
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS THE COLD
FRONT WASHES OUT AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES OVER THE AREA. THE
UPPER RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO REPOSITION ITSELF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL LEAVE US WITH FAIRLY
NEBULOUS FORCING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY BRING A
REDUCTION IN SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY BUT NOT A TOTAL REMOVAL OF
RAIN CHANCES WITH A MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE.
WARE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
GENERALLY UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES (VFR CONDITIONS)
ARE EXPECTED.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
LATE TONIGHT/TOWARD SUNRISE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
(KPNC/KSWO), BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AT MOST TERMINALS, BUT THE CHANCE OF IMPACTING A GIVEN
TERMINAL IS LOW.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED AND
BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 74 94 72 92 / 20 10 30 40
HOBART OK 74 97 72 94 / 20 10 30 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 76 97 76 95 / 10 0 10 30
GAGE OK 71 96 67 89 / 20 10 50 30
PONCA CITY OK 73 93 71 91 / 20 20 50 30
DURANT OK 76 95 75 95 / 10 0 0 40
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...10
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