039
FXUS64 KOUN 281845
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
145 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 104 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
- DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE, WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 DEGREES
MOST AFTERNOONS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
AS MINOR WAVE, MCV, CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
ANTICIPATE LESS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS IN ITS WAKE WE ARE IN A
GENERAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
DO OCCUR WILL LIKELY DIMINISH OR DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, BUT CAN NOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM. BEST CHANCES, IF YOU CAN CALL THEM
THAT, WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE. AGAIN CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION, BUT
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATE SOME CLOUD COVER, SUNDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE
HOTTER DAYS WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S
WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND THE CENTURY MARK.
BY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE HIGH SETTLES FARTHER SOUTH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND WITH IT AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE MAIN WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE STATE
ON MONDAY AND WILL BE THE FOCUS MORE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD SEVERE IS NOT EXPECTED, WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY BY LATE IN THE DAY, A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
FOCUS, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES, ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS THE COLD
FRONT WASHES OUT AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES OVER THE AREA. THE
UPPER RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO REPOSITION ITSELF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL LEAVE US WITH FAIRLY
NEBULOUS FORCING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY BRING A
REDUCTION IN SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY BUT NOT A TOTAL REMOVAL OF
RAIN CHANCES WITH A MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE.
WARE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
S TO SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BACK TO S AND SE EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE S AND SW AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO NOT IMPACT TAF SITES BUT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE LOW CHANCES
AND LOW COVERAGE EXPECTED, THIS ACTIVITY WAS NOT MENTIONED IN ANY
TAFS AT THIS TIME BUT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR IMPACTS
TO TAF SITES WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 94 74 92 / 10 10 20 40
HOBART OK 75 97 72 95 / 10 10 30 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 76 96 76 94 / 10 10 10 30
GAGE OK 72 96 68 90 / 10 10 50 20
PONCA CITY OK 73 94 69 91 / 20 20 50 30
DURANT OK 75 95 76 95 / 0 0 0 30
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...25
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