712
FXUS64 KOUN 291117
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
617 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 609 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
- DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE, WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 DEGREES
MOST AFTERNOONS.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST HOUR
ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BUT GUSTY WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE ACTIVITY WANES
LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE
FOR THE AREA TODAY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGING WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWESTERN US THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S, PUSHING HEAT INDEX
VALUES OVER 100 DEGREES, WITH THE WARMEST READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH 105.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES, ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN
OKLAHOMA, WITH BETTER CHANCES ARRIVING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. WITH 1000-1500
J/KG OF DCAPE, THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, BUT A LACK OF WIND SHEAR (BULK SHEAR
ONLY 15-20 KTS) WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A MORE ORGANIZED WIND
THREAT. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD GIVEN MOIST
AIRMASS AND RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
THE FRONT WILL SLOW ON MONDAY AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION MONDAY AFTERNOON,
PLACING IT NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR BY PEAK HEATING. THIS
WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA,
WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WHERE DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY, THE STRONGER STORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE FRONT WILL HANG
AROUND THE AREA INTO TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, AGAIN
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
WARE
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
BY MIDWEEK THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS UPPER RIDGING
REBUILDS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS FORCING BECOMES MORE NEBULOUS ACROSS THE AREA BUT DO NOT
DISAPPEAR ALTOGETHER AS A MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES, RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S EACH AFTERNOON, WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO 100
DEGREES.
WARE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CAME OUT OF SW KANSAS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
FIZZLED BEFORE IT GOT TO OUR PART OF OKLAHOMA. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND OUTFLOW FROM THE DYING COMPLEX HAS HELPED TRIGGER SOME
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ROUGHLY CENTERED ON KCSM. THESE SHOWERS
HAVE DIMINISHED QUITE RAPIDLY THIS MORNING, ALLOWING FOR SOME
GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 15-30 MPH ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN A FEW HOURS, BUT THE VFR CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN FOR SEVERAL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DO INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THIS
TAF CYCLE, WITH PROB30 NOTED FOR MOST AIRPORTS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.
FOX
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 94 74 92 70 / 20 20 30 40
HOBART OK 97 73 94 69 / 20 20 30 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 96 76 95 72 / 0 10 40 50
GAGE OK 96 67 89 67 / 20 50 20 30
PONCA CITY OK 95 71 91 68 / 20 60 30 20
DURANT OK 95 76 95 73 / 0 10 40 40
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...21
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