463
FXUS64 KOUN 300411
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1111 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1105 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
- DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE, WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 DEGREES
MOST AFTERNOONS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE (10-20% CHANCE)
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE WILL BE PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH SOME DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL KEEP THE
HIGHER CHANCES NORTH AND WEST; ADDITIONALLY, AN MCV CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAY PROVIDE SOME LOCAL
ENHANCEMENT TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE (30-50% CHANCE) AS A COLD
FRONT SURGES SOUTH TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER. THESE WILL
ALSO HAVE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT A HOT AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HEAT INDICES
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OKLAHOMA EARLY MONDAY MORNING,
REACHING A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION THROUGH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY PEAK HEATING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS IT SURGES
SOUTHEASTWARD, WITH DIURNALLY ENHANCED REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THROUGH WESTERN NORTH TEXAS). THESE AFTERNOON STORMS WILL CARRY A
LOW RISK FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY MAY SEE
SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS AS WE START TO LOSE THE FOCUSING EFFECTS OF THE FRONT.
HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO THE LOWER 100S ARE AGAIN EXPECTED
ON MONDAY (THOUGH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA MAY BE COOLER WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT). TUESDAY WILL BE A RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH
APPARENT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
DAY
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
BY MIDWEEK THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS UPPER RIDGING
REBUILDS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE DURING THIS
PERIOD AS FORCING BECOMES MORE NEBULOUS ACROSS THE AREA BUT DO NOT
DISAPPEAR ALTOGETHER AS A MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES, RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S EACH AFTERNOON, WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO 100
DEGREES.
WARE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND KPNC
AND PERHAPS DOWN TO KSWO TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
THE AREA FROM KANSAS WITH SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT
ON MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN GENERAL APART FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 74 92 71 86 / 20 40 60 20
HOBART OK 72 94 69 89 / 20 30 60 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 76 95 71 90 / 10 20 50 20
GAGE OK 68 89 66 85 / 40 40 40 20
PONCA CITY OK 71 91 68 87 / 50 40 30 10
DURANT OK 75 95 73 92 / 0 20 30 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...26
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