928
FXUS64 KOUN 301711
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1211 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1208 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN HAZARD.
- LOW (10-30%) CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
- HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE, WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 DEGREES
MOST AFTERNOONS.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHER
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS BUT HAS SO FAR
NOT MADE MUCH PROGRESS INTO OUR AREA. STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT EXPECT
AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. A
COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA COULD SERVE AS THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. GREATER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY WORKS ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING PEAK HEATING. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS
DUE TO RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND PWATS APPROACHING 2".
CHANCES FOR STORMS APPEAR MUCH LOWER ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS MORE STABLE AIR WORKS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, WITH REDEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THESE AREAS. MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE DRY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES, A WELCOME REPRIEVE
FROM THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. BY
WEDNESDAY, THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS LEE TROUGHING ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS STRENGTHENS, RETURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WARE
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REPOSITION ITSELF TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST MID TO LATE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF WEEK. A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND, WHICH MAY BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION, THOUGH MODELS DISAGREE
SOMEWHAT ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS TROUGH. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, THEN WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S BY THE WEEKEND.
WARE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. STRONG VARIABLE WIND GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS AND MAYBE SOME HAIL. SHIFTING
WIND DIRECTIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN WHEN A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE STABLE IN A N
TO NE DIRECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 93 70 87 70 / 40 40 10 10
HOBART OK 96 70 89 70 / 50 50 30 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 96 72 91 72 / 40 50 30 10
GAGE OK 89 66 86 67 / 20 30 10 20
PONCA CITY OK 91 68 87 67 / 40 10 0 10
DURANT OK 95 73 92 74 / 20 50 30 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...25
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