869
FXUS64 KOUN 301732
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1232 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1230 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN HAZARD.
- LOW (10-30%) CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
- HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE, WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 DEGREES
MOST AFTERNOONS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-40. WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY, HIGH PWATS, AND LITTLE WIND SHEAR (RESULTING IN PULSE
STORMS WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT), DOWNBURSTS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
AGAIN BE THE MAIN RISKS WITH THESE STORMS, THOUGH SOME HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
BY TUESDAY MORNING, MOST OF OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL HAVE SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD LEAVING ONLY LOW CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS. TIMING-WISE, THIS WOULD INCLUDE ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY ANY REDEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON. THAT BEING SAID, MOST OF THE CAMS KEEP US DRY ALL DAY.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S (DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THE
NIGHT BEFORE).
TEMPERATURES START GRADUALLY WARMING BACK UP ON WEDNESDAY. RIDGING
WILL KEEP US MOSTLY DRY, THOUGH WE WILL STILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN.
DAY
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REPOSITION ITSELF TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST MID TO LATE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF WEEK. A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND, WHICH MAY BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION, THOUGH MODELS DISAGREE
SOMEWHAT ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS TROUGH. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, THEN WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S BY THE WEEKEND.
WARE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. STRONG VARIABLE WIND GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS AND MAYBE SOME HAIL. SHIFTING
WIND DIRECTIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN WHEN A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE STABLE IN A N
TO NE DIRECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 87 70 89 / 30 10 20 20
HOBART OK 70 89 70 92 / 50 20 30 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 72 91 73 94 / 50 20 10 10
GAGE OK 66 87 67 88 / 10 10 30 20
PONCA CITY OK 67 87 67 88 / 10 0 10 20
DURANT OK 73 92 73 95 / 40 20 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...25
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