754
FXUS64 KOUN 251726
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REMAINS ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A ~595
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WITH A WEAKNESS/LOWERED HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROUGH OVERHEAD. AS A RESULT OF THIS WEAKNESS, NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A MODEST 925 MB LOW-LEVEL JET
WITH ATTENDANT ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM AIR ADVECTION IN TANDEM WITH
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE SERVING AS LOW-LEVEL FOCUS MECHANISMS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION, RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS
INDICATE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) MIGHT BE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE--WHICH WOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. GIVEN ALL THESE AFOREMENTIONED MESOSCALE FEATURES,
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT. THE MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.
THERE MIGHT BE A RELATIVE LULL LATER THIS MORNING--HOWEVER, WITH
A POTENTIAL MCV IN THE AREA, THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY STILL PRESENT. REDEVELOPMENT IS MORE LIKELY BY AFTERNOON
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CURRENTLY, THE MOST LIKELY AREA IS ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE PRIMARY
HAZARD WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET
MAY SUSTAIN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED WITH THE
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE LOWER/NEAR ZERO AND MORE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA FOR HEAT
INDICES BETWEEN 105 TO 110 DEG F. FARTHER TO THE NORTH, GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS,
CONFIDENCE ON REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS LOWER. EVEN SO,
IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING IF SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BRIEFLY REACH HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 DEG F.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE TOWARD THE WEST BY
THE WEEKEND, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER/NEAR ZERO CHANCES
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS MOST THE AREA. CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
SOME TERRAIN EFFECTS.
OTHERWISE, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HEAT
INDICES GENERALLY RANGING FROM 100 TO 110 DEG F BOTH DAYS. HEAT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE THE RIDGE MAY
STRENGTHEN FURTHER BY EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY
RISE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
DEG F WITH LIMITED/NEAR ZERO CHANCES FOR RAIN.
TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT
THE RIDGE MAY RETROGRADE FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO PLACE THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST OR NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THIS
POTENTIAL, THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE (20 TO 30%) OF SHOWERS
OF STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, IF THE RIDGE
RETROGRADES FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST, A COLD FRONT MAY EVEN ADVANCE
TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, FORECAST UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOCATION OF THE
RIDGE REMAINS HIGH. FOR EXAMPLE, PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES
A 10 TO 15 DEG F SPREAD BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
PREDOMINATELY VFR CATEGORY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ANOTHER AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS FORECAST, ESPECIALLY FROM WEST-CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, ALONG WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY, WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 76 96 76 96 / 20 0 0 0
HOBART OK 75 101 76 100 / 20 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 76 100 77 98 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 70 98 73 99 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 74 95 75 96 / 30 0 0 0
DURANT OK 76 95 77 96 / 0 10 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ032>048-050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...09
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