163
FXUS64 KOUN 251750
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY
ALONG A BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT TO YESTERDAY WILL YIELD A RISK FOR
DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. THESE STORMS WILL INITIALLY
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN, BUT A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET MAY HELP SUSTAIN
CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HEAT IS THE OTHER STORY THAT CONTINUES TODAY WITH HEAT INDICES
RISING INTO THE 102 TO 108 RANGE ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHWESTERN AND
PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS WEST OVER OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND,
SUPPRESSING RAIN CHANCES AND LOCKING IN THE HEAT. CAMS SUGGEST SOME
ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY, BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE IN THE 102 TO 110 RANGE OVER THE WEEKEND.
A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATUDAY ACROSS ALL BUT NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA, AND ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SUNDAY.
DAY
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE THE RIDGE MAY
STRENGTHEN FURTHER BY EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY
RISE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
DEG F WITH LIMITED/NEAR ZERO CHANCES FOR RAIN.
TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT
THE RIDGE MAY RETROGRADE FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO PLACE THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST OR NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THIS
POTENTIAL, THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE (20 TO 30%) OF SHOWERS
OF STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, IF THE RIDGE
RETROGRADES FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST, A COLD FRONT MAY EVEN ADVANCE
TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, FORECAST UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOCATION OF THE
RIDGE REMAINS HIGH. FOR EXAMPLE, PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES
A 10 TO 15 DEG F SPREAD BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
PREDOMINATELY VFR CATEGORY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ANOTHER AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS FORECAST, ESPECIALLY FROM WEST-CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, ALONG WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY, WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 76 97 76 96 / 20 10 0 0
HOBART OK 75 101 76 99 / 20 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 76 100 77 97 / 0 0 0 10
GAGE OK 69 98 73 98 / 20 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 74 96 76 96 / 40 10 0 0
DURANT OK 76 95 77 95 / 0 20 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ005>008-
011>013-017>020-023>048-050>052.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ032>048-050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ083>090.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...09
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