155
FXUS64 KOUN 261729
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- GENERALLY DRY FORECAST UNTIL THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS AREA IS WITHIN THE TERMINUS OF THE LOW-
LEVEL JET (MOST EVIDENT AT 925 MB). THE EXPECTATION IS THIS
ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING.
DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE WEATHER STORY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A 593 DAM MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING WESTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S DEG F. THE HIGHEST AIR TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ACROSS THE WEST, WHERE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE THE HIGHEST (~25 TO 26 DEG C).
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S DEG F ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THESE DEW POINTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH WESTWARD EXTENT WITH
LOW TO MID 60S DEG F NEAR THE 100TH MERIDIAN. COMBINED WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S DEG F, HEAT
INDICES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 100 TO 110 DEG F. THE MOST
DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA (WHERE THE HIGHEST DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST). A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, WHERE DEW POINTS WILL BE THE
LOWEST.
WITH THE STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MARKEDLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE (20 TO 30%) THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING PRIMARILY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE WILL BE A MOIST, AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH NO CAP. OTHERWISE, MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
SUMMERTIME RIDGE REMAINING ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE, THE WEATHER STORY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 110 DEG F
BOTH DAYS.
ON SUNDAY, THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE DOES SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST. THEREFORE, THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE EXPANDS A BIT TO THE EAST MONDAY, SO HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
THE CONSENSUS AMONG DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE,
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S DEG F WITH LIMITED/NEAR ZERO
CHANCES FOR RAIN.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, THE RIDGE
MAY RETROGRADE FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO PLACE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO NORTHWEST OR NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN MAY ALLOW
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES (MCSS) AND EFFECTIVE COLD FRONTS TO
IMPACT PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT, THERE IS CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
FORECAST HIGHS ALSO TREND LOWER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES A 40 TO 70% CHANCE OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW 90 DEG F ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA
BY NEXT SATURDAY (AUGUST 2).
MAHALE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A STORM
THIS AFTERNOON NOT ENOUGH COVER TO MENTION IN SWO OR PNC
TAFS. A DECENT CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE IN PLACE. SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. WILL
MENTION A LOW CHANCE OF TSRA IN THE DUA TAF THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SOUTHERLY
WIND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 76 95 78 97 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 76 99 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 77 98 77 100 / 0 10 0 0
GAGE OK 73 99 73 97 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 76 96 77 97 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 77 95 77 99 / 10 10 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-011>013-
017>020-023>048-050>052.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ005>008-
011>013-017>020-024>026-029>032-042-043-047-048-051-052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...06
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