898
FXUS64 KOUN 270340
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1040 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1038 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
- SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE STRONG WIND
GUSTS.
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH DAYTIME MIXING
COUPLED WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE GIVING WAY TO
THE CONTINUED HOT TREND TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER JUST
AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID-90S TO LOWER TRIPLE
DIGITS. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE WARMEST OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THUS THIS IS WHERE THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. A SWATH OF DRY AIR IS DRAPED NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH IS
HELPING TO LIMIT HEAT INDICES GOING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RETROGRADING RIDGE ALOFT, A SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OFF THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THROUGH
OBSERVATIONS, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING PUMPED NORTHWARD INTO
EASTERN TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW. THUS, DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. HEAT INDICES HAVE
ALREADY RISEN TO ABOVE 100 DEGREES TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF WEST/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH 8 PM
FOR HEAT INDICES UP TO 110 DEGREES.
WITH AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING, SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AS THE CAPPING INVERSION ERODES ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA.
MOISTURE CONTENT AND FORCING WILL BE LACKING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA, BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN GREATER ABUNDANCE.
PLENTY OF SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500-2000 J/KG WILL HELP DEVELOP
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT MINIMAL SHEAR
WILL GIVE PULSE-LIKE STORM MODES. IF A STRONG STORM WERE TO
DEVELOP, GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. PWATS
WILL BE BETWEEN THE 90TH TO 99TH PERCENTILE AROUND 1.75-2 INCHES,
SO ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. WEAK FLOW ALOFT
WILL GIVE WAY TO SLOW NORTHWARD STORM MOTION. LOCALIZED FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE, BUT NOT A HUGE CONCERN GIVEN THE LOW COVERAGE OF
STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH CONTINUED
HEIGHT RISES THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90S WITH
SOME TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE THE WARMEST. THE TRICKIEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY REMAINS TO BE THE DEWPOINTS. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARD AS WELL WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR MIXING OF DRIER AIR INTO OKLAHOMA, SHOVING THE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE EASTWARD. MODEL OUTPUT HAS VARIOUS SOLUTIONS FOR
HOW STRONG THE MIXING IS SUNDAY, THUS THE CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE TREND OF THE NBM. A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON HAS
BEEN ISSUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN, CENTRAL AND INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR HEAT INDICES UP TO 105 TO 108 DEGREES
EXPECTED AND SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF UP TO 110 DEGREES POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER, RECENT MEAN RUNS OF THE HREF ARE STARTING TO HINT AT
STRONGER MIXING AND LOWER DEWPOINTS SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL
EXPECTED HEAT INDICES COULD LOWER.
BY MONDAY, WIDESPREAD 90 DEGREE AND LOCALIZED TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IS
EXPECTED TO START THE WORK WEEK. MUCH OF THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
WITH THE HIGHEST HEAT INDICES FOCUSED THERE. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL
BE HOT AND HUMID WITH POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100
DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
THE CONSENSUS AMONG DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE,
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S DEG F WITH LIMITED/NEAR ZERO
CHANCES FOR RAIN.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, THE RIDGE
MAY RETROGRADE FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO PLACE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO NORTHWEST OR NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN MAY ALLOW
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES (MCSS) AND EFFECTIVE COLD FRONTS TO
IMPACT PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT, THERE IS CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
FORECAST HIGHS ALSO TREND LOWER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES A 40 TO 70% CHANCE OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW 90 DEG F ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA
BY NEXT SATURDAY (AUGUST 2).
MAHALE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY, AREA-WIDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 96 77 96 78 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 100 76 99 76 / 10 0 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 101 76 98 77 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 97 73 99 73 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 95 76 97 76 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 96 76 97 77 / 10 10 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ005>008-
011>013-017>020-024>026-029>032-042-043-047-048-051-052.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01
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