745
FXUS64 KOUN 280346
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1046 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1043 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
- LOW (<20%) CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS.
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MEANDER WESTWARD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S.
DEWPOINTS TODAY ARE ALREADY A FEW DEGREES LOWER, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST, THAN YESTERDAY WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER PATTERN.
MOST HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S BY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. THUS, HEAT INDICES MAY BE LOWER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY THANKS TO SOME DRIER AIR. A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM 1PM TO 8PM FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO
105 DEGREES POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS EASTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
A WEAK MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE IS SPINNING OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WITH A LAYER
OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THAT AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE HELPING TO
SLOW THE DAYTIME HEATING, BUT ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON.
AS TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO HEAT, THERE
MAY BE A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY THAT SETS UP AND BECOMES A
PRIMARY FOCUS AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTRODUCING POCKETS OF INSTABILITY
WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000-2000 J/KG. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY CONTINUE TO HAVE
A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700-800MB. THUS, THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR A STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20 KNOTS
WILL GIVE WAY TO QUICK UPDRAFT PULSES AND IN RETURN THE POTENTIAL
FOR A RAPID COLLAPSE OF STORMS WITH STRONG DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS AS
THE MAIN HAZARD. PWATS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY, BUT
STILL OVER 1.5" TO 2" AND THEREFORE HIGH RAINFALL RATES COMBINED
WITH SLOW STORM MOTION MAY GIVE WAY TO LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD MONDAY AND BE
ENTERING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-90S TO LOWER 100S. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY KEEP TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, WHICH WILL GIVE WAY
TO HEAT INDICES UP TO 105 TO 110 DEGREES ACROSS ALL BUT WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THEREFORE, A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE FROM 1 PM TO 8
PM MONDAY.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR, WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP HEAT INDICES FROM EXTREME
CRITERIA. CONDITIONS WILL STILL FEEL HUMID WITH A DEWPOINT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME PRECIPITATION TO CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AT THIS TIME AND ARE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
THE CONSENSUS AMONG DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE MEAN OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS IS THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH AT LEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE A HOT
DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO MID 100S
DEG F.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE RIDGE MAY
RETROGRADE FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO PLACE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO NORTHWEST OR NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS SYNOPTIC-SCALE
PATTERN WOULD ALLOW MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES (MCSS) AND
EFFECTIVE, CONVECTIVELY-REINFORCED COLD FRONTS TO ADVANCE
SOUTHWARD AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATE AROUND THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
AS A RESULT, THERE IS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. INITIALLY, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT BE CONFINED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THEREFORE, THURSDAY WILL LIKELY STILL BE A
HOT DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA.
FORECAST HIGHS TREND LOWER TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE
LOWEST HIGHS FORECAST ON SATURDAY. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
INDICATES A 50 TO 80% CHANCE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW 90 DEG F
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA (WITH THE 80% ACROSS FAR
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER).
MAHALE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. ON
MONDAY, WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER THAN SUNDAY AND OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 93 77 97 76 / 10 10 0 0
HOBART OK 96 76 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 96 76 100 75 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 96 74 97 73 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 95 77 98 76 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 93 76 98 75 / 20 10 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ006>008-
011>013-017>020-024>032-038>048-050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ086-089-090.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01
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