197
FXUS64 KOUN 281730
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1225 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
THE 598 DAM MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL
CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WILL BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A LOW-
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WITH SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST 850 MB TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT RANGING FROM 22 DEG C ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO 26
DEG C ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE ONCE AGAIN INTO THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S DEG F.
IN CONTRAST TO THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT, THERE WILL BE A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DEW POINT GRADIENT WITH DEW POINTS RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S F ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO THE MID 70S DEG F
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL PLACE HEAT INDICES BETWEEN
105 TO 110 DEG F NEAR AND EAST OF HWY 281, WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT.
WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS, NO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
GRADUALLY HOTTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA BOTH DAYS.
FOR TUESDAY, THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 23 DEG C ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO 27 DEG F ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. AS A
RESULT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE A COUPLE DEGREES (ON AVERAGE)
ACROSS THE AREA.
BY WEDNESDAY, VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND A PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL
RIDGE AHEAD OF A FRONT IN KANSAS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO MID
100 DEG F.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND
RETROGRADE FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST TO PLACE NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
ON THE PERIPHERY OF NORTHWEST OR NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS MAY
ALLOW A REMNANT COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S., WHICH WILL ALLOW MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES (MCSS) AND EFFECTIVE, CONVECTIVELY-
REINFORCED COLD FRONTS TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD.
FOR THURSDAY, A CONVECTIVELY-REINFORCED BOUNDARY FROM THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT'S CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TO BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, LESS HOT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, IT'LL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY.
BY FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPANDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA WITH THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES AND/OR REMNANT BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. FORECAST HIGHS
TREND DOWNWARD WITH THE LOWEST HIGHS FORECAST ON SATURDAY.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES A 60 TO 90% CHANCE OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW 90 DEG F ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, THE CHANCE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW
90 DEG F ARE ~20% ON SATURDAY.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND. A FEW
AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP BUT WILL DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 76 98 75 100 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 75 102 74 103 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 75 101 75 103 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 73 100 71 99 / 0 0 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 76 99 74 98 / 10 0 10 10
DURANT OK 75 100 75 102 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ005>008-
011>013-018>020-025-026-028>032-039>048-050>052.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ006>008-011>013-
017>020-024>032-038>048-050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ090.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-089-090.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...06
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