212
FXUS64 KOUN 290515
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1215 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
MID-LEVEL SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500MB RAP ANALYSIS
REVEALS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY RETROGRADING WESTWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE 598 DAM RIDGE WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS. SOUTHWEST WARM BREEZES OF 10 TO 20 MPH MAY
PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO THE HUMID CONDITIONS AND HEAT INDICES
GENERALLY NEAR OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA AND INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE THE HOTTEST DAYS THIS WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE PASSES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LEE TROUGHING WILL GIVE
WAY TO WARM DOWNSLOPING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW, WHICH WILL
AID IN THE WARMEST WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
90S TO NEAR 105 DEGREES. DRIER AIR WILL FILL IN ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA. THUS, HEAT INDICES MAY RISE UP TO
100 TO 110 DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TUESDAY FROM NOON TO 8 PM ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR
EASTERN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A HEAT HEADLINE IS LIKELY TO BE
NEEDED WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL HOLD OUT ON ISSUING FOR NOW.
ANY PRECIPITATION TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP NORTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED
OVER NORTH TEXAS. BY WEDNESDAY, A WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
WILL BE EMBEDDED INTO THE FLOW NORTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE, STRETCHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A DECAYING
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH
DECREASING CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S., WHICH WILL ALLOW MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES (MCSS) AND EFFECTIVE, CONVECTIVELY-
REINFORCED COLD FRONTS TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD.
FOR THURSDAY, A CONVECTIVELY-REINFORCED BOUNDARY FROM THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT'S CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TO BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, LESS HOT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, IT'LL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY.
BY FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPANDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA WITH THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES AND/OR REMNANT BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. FORECAST HIGHS
TREND DOWNWARD WITH THE LOWEST HIGHS FORECAST ON SATURDAY.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES A 60 TO 90% CHANCE OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW 90 DEG F ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, THE CHANCE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW
90 DEG F ARE ~20% ON SATURDAY.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BACKING BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH.
WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY ACROSS NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
TERMINALS TOMORROW AFTERNOON (KCSM/KWWR).
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 101 74 94 / 0 0 10 10
HOBART OK 74 103 73 96 / 0 0 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 76 103 74 101 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 71 100 67 85 / 10 10 30 20
PONCA CITY OK 75 100 72 88 / 10 0 30 20
DURANT OK 77 102 76 101 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ005>008-011>013-018>020-025-026-028>032-039>048-050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ090.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...10
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