553
FXUS64 KOUN 290552
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1248 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN FROM THURSDAY TO THE WEEKEND.
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
WE'RE ALL TAUGHT IN OUR DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY CLASSES THAT IF THE WAVE
PATTERN BECOMES LONGWAVE ENOUGH, WE START SEEING TROUGHS AND
PATTERNS RETROGRADING WEST. WELL, WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS
DOMINANT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS AS IT HAS BEEN ALL SUMMER, WE'VE
FINALLY HIT THAT CRITICAL MASS. THE RIDGE AXIS EARLY THIS MORNING IS
LOCATED OVER THE OZARKS/OUACHITAS REGION AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE
WESTWARD TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.
500 MB HEIGHTS AREN'T QUITE LOOKING LIKE THEY'LL REACH THE EXTREMES
WE WERE SEEING IN THE MODELS, BUT IT WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM ALOFT.
THAT WILL KEEP ANY CLOUDS IN THE REALM OF FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS AND
ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO GET TOASTY. THE ONLY REAL LIMITING
FACTORS TO HOT AIR TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AND THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF DEWPOINTS NEAR
OF ABOVE 70 FROM I-35 TO THE EAST. REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE ONE OF
THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR TO DATE.
EXPECT HOT AND CALM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO THE UPPER 70S IN
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, AND IT'S POSSIBLE THAT SOMEWHERE IN BRYAN/ATOKA
COUNTIES OR THE OKC METRO URBAN HEAT ISLAND SEES LOW TEMPERATURES
FAIL TO GET BELOW 80.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE DEAMPLIFIED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST, BEHIND WHICH A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY TOMORROW
EVENING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TOMORROW EVENING AND NIGHT, THOUGH WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL PREVENT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND LEAVE STORM COVERAGE MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. SOUNDINGS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM BOTH SHOW
DEEP, WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH
1,400 - 1,600 J/KG OF DCAPE. THAT'S MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
DOWNBURSTS IF WE GET STORMS INTO OUR AREA - AND OFTEN TIMES THESE
OUTFLOW-ENHANCED FRONTS ENTER SELF-REINFORCING LOOPS THAT BRING THEM
FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS SHOW. THIS IS A BIT OF A
CONDITIONAL/PATTERN RECOGNITION TYPE THING TO WATCH, BUT WE'LL BE
KEEPING AN EYE OUT FOR THAT POTENTIAL SCENARIO IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, A CLASSIC "PREFRONTAL TORCH" FEATURE IS NOT
SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS, IN PART BECAUSE THERE'S ABSOLUTELY NO LEE
TROUGHING. EVEN WITHOUT THAT, AIR TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE HOT
IN THE CORE OF THE RIDGE. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT EVERYONE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY SEES THEIR HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR ON WEDNESDAY.
THE BIG PATTERN FLIP COMES ON THURSDAY AS THAT COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA. RIGHT NOW, NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR 100 ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
LAWTON TO ATOKA. MEANWHILE, THE NAM HAS THE COLD FRONT CLEARING OUR
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES BY MIDDAY WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-TO-
MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH
THIS DICHOTOMY, ESPECIALLY WITH THE PREVAILING WISDOM SEEMING TO BE
THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL SOUTH OF I-40. EXPECT HIGHER-THAN-
NORMAL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON THURSDAY WITH
REFINEMENTS TO BE MADE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
WE'LL ENTER AUGUST WITH A COOLER-THAN-NORMAL DAY FOR MANY OF US.
RIGHT NOW, PROBABILITIES THAT WE STAY BELOW 90 ARE ABOUT 80% OR
HIGHER ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40, AND 30-60% FROM THE RED RIVER TO I-
40. THOSE PROBABILITIES ARE SIMILAR ON SATURDAY BEFORE GUIDANCE
SHOWS WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY
EXPANDS BACK EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
RIGHT NOW, PRECIPITATION CHANCES DON'T LOOK TO BE FOCUSED ON ONE
PARTICULAR DAY. IF THE FRONT HASN'T CLEARED OUR AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, THEN THE RED RIVER REGION COULD SEE STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT DAY. OTHERWISE, PROBABILITIES OF SEEING
AT LEAST 1/4 INCH OF RAIN BY MONDAY LOOK TO BE A BLANKET 30-60%
ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND, ANY SUCH
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO BECOME MORE
APPARENT. OVERALL, SEVERE WEATHER DOESN'T LOOK LIKE MUCH OF A
CONCERN THIS WEEKEND, BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REACH THE
1.4-1.8 RANGE, SO HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BACKING BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH.
WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY ACROSS NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
TERMINALS TOMORROW AFTERNOON (KCSM/KWWR).
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 99 75 101 74 / 0 0 0 10
HOBART OK 101 74 103 73 / 0 0 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 101 76 103 74 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 100 71 100 67 / 0 10 10 30
PONCA CITY OK 99 75 100 72 / 0 10 0 30
DURANT OK 99 77 102 76 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ005>008-011>013-018>020-025-026-028>032-039>048-050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ090.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...10
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