858
FXUS64 KOUN 292308
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
608 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 605 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANY MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE OUTSIDE OF THE
AREA WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY. THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE
GULF COAST IN TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S ROUGHLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR, HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S
ARE LIKELY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA (EAST OF I-35). HOT
TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE
DIGITS. THE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR HWY-81 AND I-44 SOUTH
AND EASTWARD WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO 105-110 DEGREES POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
A SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP IN THE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST, THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE
WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT RETROGRADES WESTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MAXIMIZED HEATING SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN OKLAHOMA. THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE
AGAIN RISE INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS AS WELL WITH SOME AREAS,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35, EXPERIENCING HEAT INDICES UP TO 110
DEGREES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SBCAPE VALUES
NEAR 1000-1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS. SEVERAL
CAMS ARE INDICATING STORM INITIATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND
MIXING WILL GIVE WAY TO DCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500 J/KG AND SUPPORTIVE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DOES DEVELOP.
ADDITIONAL POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO SOME STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAVING THE FRONT THROUGH MOST OF
OKLAHOMA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE FRONT. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE MODEL INCONSISTENCY ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION
BEFORE THE COLD AIR FOLLOWS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA. THUS, THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY FOR
THURSDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURES FROM
NORTH (UPPER 70S TO 80S) TO SOUTH (90S). DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE COLD AIR, THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL THAT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA MAY NEED A HEAT HEADLINE THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
WE'LL ENTER AUGUST WITH A COOLER-THAN-NORMAL DAY FOR MANY OF US.
RIGHT NOW, PROBABILITIES THAT WE STAY BELOW 90 ARE ABOUT 80% OR
HIGHER ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40, AND 30-60% FROM THE RED RIVER TO I-
40. THOSE PROBABILITIES ARE SIMILAR ON SATURDAY BEFORE GUIDANCE
SHOWS WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY
EXPANDS BACK EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
RIGHT NOW, PRECIPITATION CHANCES DON'T LOOK TO BE FOCUSED ON ONE
PARTICULAR DAY. IF THE FRONT HASN'T CLEARED OUR AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, THEN THE RED RIVER REGION COULD SEE STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT DAY. OTHERWISE, PROBABILITIES OF SEEING
AT LEAST 1/4 INCH OF RAIN BY MONDAY LOOK TO BE A BLANKET 30-60%
ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND, ANY SUCH
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO BECOME MORE
APPARENT. OVERALL, SEVERE WEATHER DOESN'T LOOK LIKE MUCH OF A
CONCERN THIS WEEKEND, BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REACH THE
1.4-1.8 RANGE, SO HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A FEW DAYTIME
CU. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WWR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN NORTHWEST OK LATE
TOMORROW, BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN
TAF AT WWR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 101 74 94 / 0 0 10 10
HOBART OK 74 103 73 96 / 0 0 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 76 103 74 101 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 71 100 67 85 / 10 10 30 20
PONCA CITY OK 75 100 72 88 / 10 0 30 20
DURANT OK 77 102 76 101 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-011>013-
018>020-025-026-028>032-039>048-050>052.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ005>008-
011>013-017>020-024>032-038>048-050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ090.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ090.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30
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