344
FXUS64 KOUN 302254
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
554 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 552 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NW PARTS OF THE FA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A COOL FRONT FURTHER NW EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN OK
PANHANDLE ACROSS CENTRAL KS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR/BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW STORMS GETTING STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IS EXPECTED WITH DCAPE IN NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA ALREADY IN THE 1000-1500 RANGE. NO TO VERY LITTLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED SO STORMS WOULD BE SLOW
MOVING/STATIONARY. WITH THIS IN MIND, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING
COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS. ANY SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING BUT THE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE MID
90S TO LOW 100S. THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX
VALUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 8 PM. WITH THE COOL FRONT ACROSS THE AREA, SOME LOCATIONS
COULD HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT
NO SIGNIFICANT DROP IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
THE COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THURSDAY. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND TIMING OF THE FRONT WHICH
WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, RIGHT NOW, MODELS
SHOW THE FRONT MAKING IT TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY VICINITY AT LEAST
WHICH WOULD MEAN MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE FA, WILL BE NORTH OF THE
FRONT. FORECAST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 80S IN NORTHERN
OK TO UPPER 90S/AROUND 100 ALONG THE RED RIVER. IF THE FRONT IS
SLOWER, TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RED RIVER WILL LIKELY BE HOTTER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN NW OK TO THE
LOW/MID 70S IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FA.
MODELS SHOW SHOWER/STORM CHANCES CONTINUING, MAINLY NORTH OF THE
FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE CAMS ALSO SHOW
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FA. IF THESE STORMS
DEVELOP, GUSTY WINDS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. OF
COURSE, THE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT MAY OR MAY NOT AFFECT
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FA TOMORROW DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ENDS
UP TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE PLEASANT WITH SOME RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70
ACROSS THE FA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
THE COOL START TO AUGUST WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND. IT
ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE WE'LL SEE WEAK SPLIT FLOW DEVELOP IN WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA, WITH A WEAK SUBTROPICAL JET MOVING ONSHORE FROM
CALIFORNIA AND SQUASHING THE RIDGE DOWN INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. AS
THIS JET REACHES THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
IT'S A SAFE BET TO ASSUME WE SEE STORMS DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME OFF OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. THOSE STORMS COULD ORGANIZE
INTO AN MCS AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
THE RIDGE WILL LOOK TO MOVE BACK EAST A LITTLE BIT ON SUNDAY - NOT
CLOSE ENOUGH TO MASSIVELY INFLUENCE OUR TEMPERATURES (EXCEPT FOR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR THE CAPROCK, WHICH COULD QUICKLY REBOUND TO
NEAR 100), BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A HEFTY SLUG OF NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT INTO THE AREA. STORM CHANCES MAY END UP BEING MORE WIDESPREAD
DURING THIS PERIOD THANKS TO THE INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE RIDGE WILL EDGE EVER CLOSER TO OUR AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
INTERESTINGLY, A TROUGH WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THIS PERIOD, FOSTERING UNSEASONABLY STRONG 500 MB FLOW IN THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS ADDS A WHOLE LOT OF UNCERTAINTY TO
THIS PORTION OF THE LONG-RANGE FORECAST - IF THE RIDGE IS FURTHER
WEST, WE COULD CONTINUE WITH NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND STORM
CHANCES. IF IT GETS FURTHER EAST, ANOTHER HEAT WAVE COULD COMMENCE
AS SOON AS MONDAY. REGARDLESS, THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN
SUGGESTS THAT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE IMPACTFUL.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AND WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION AT WWR/PNC/SWO. ALSO BEHIND
THE FRONT THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THAT MAY TRY
TO REACH TOWARD I-40. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THESE LOWER CEILINGS
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 91 70 82 / 0 20 30 20
HOBART OK 73 94 70 88 / 10 20 30 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 74 99 74 92 / 0 10 20 10
GAGE OK 67 83 65 83 / 50 30 30 20
PONCA CITY OK 73 85 68 82 / 20 30 30 20
DURANT OK 76 99 74 91 / 0 20 20 30
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-011>013-
017>020-024>032-038>048-050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ090.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...30
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