933
FXUS64 KOUN 311148
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
648 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 644 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
- ONE MORE DAY OF LINGERING HEAT IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY.
- COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND STORM CHANCES BEHIND IT.
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW THE COMPOSITE
COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SURGING SOUTH TOWARD THE I-44 CORRIDOR.
THE SURGE IS BEING AIDED BY STORMS FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WELL OF
POSTFRONTAL MUCAPE IN THE 1,000-2,000 J/KG RANGE MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. THEREFORE, EVEN WITHOUT A DEFINED LLJ, WE
VERY WELL COULD SEE SINGLE-OR-MULTICELL STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WHICH WOULD KEEP THAT FRONT ROLLING
SOUTH.
REGARDLESS, SHORT-TERM MODELS SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS REACHING THE RED
RIVER BY LATE MORNING. DESPITE THAT, BOTH THE HRRR AND THE NAM ARE
RATHER UNIMPRESSED WITH THE QUALITY OF COOL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT -
THEY BOTH SHOW TEMPERATURES REACHING 100 IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND WINDS BECOME
EXTREMELY LIGHT, AND TEMPERATURES GETTING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
NBM OUTPUT FROM I-40 TO THE NORTH. MADE A LIMITED STEP IN THAT
DIRECTION WITH THE FORECAST. GOING WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY HIGHER IN
RECENT WEEKS, THOUGH STORMS/OUTFLOW COULD PUT AN END TO ADVISORY-
LEVEL HEAT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
STORMS WILL ALSO REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LIKELIEST ZONE FOR THAT TO OCCUR LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, ENCOMPASSING PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND A
GOOD CHUNK OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. WEAK WIND SHEAR AND WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL PROMOTE RAPIDLY SINGLE-CELL AND MULTICELL
STORMS WITH RAPID LIFECYCLES. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE MAY BE A
MOIST LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL PREVENT DCAPE FROM REACHING EXTREME
LEVELS WE SOMETIMES SEE IN MID-SUMMER, BUT THE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS FROM DOWNBURSTS WILL STILL EXIST.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT - HREF MEMBERS ARE
SHOWING STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG I-40, THOUGH THE EXACT FORCING
MECHANISM IS UNCLEAR SO UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
A SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL GREET US
TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL GET AUGUST STARTED WITH A DOWNRIGHT
PLEASANT SET OF TEMPERATURES - MID-80S ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40, AND
CLOSER TO 90 IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR STORMS, MOST NOTABLY IN THE MORNING ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-40.
THOSE OFF-AND-ON STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH A FRIDAY NIGHT
THAT WILL SEE MANY OF US GET BELOW 70 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2-3
WEEKS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ALOFT DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SOME BUT STILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW THE HEAT WAVE LEVELS WE'VE SEEN IN THE LAST WEEK. STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO FORM ON THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT, CONGEALING INTO AN MCS AND PROPAGATING SOUTH WITH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THAT WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
LIGHTNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF OKLAHOMA SATURDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
THE RIDGE WILL BE RESURGENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BEGINNING ON
SUNDAY. A BELT OF RATHER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO TEXAS ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE CAPROCK AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY NEARER THE
RIDGE. THE ENVIRONMENT ON SUNDAY EVENING LOOKS LIKE IT COULD YIELD
MORE VIGOROUS STORMS THAN THE LIKES WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE LAST WEEK -
EFFECTIVE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR COULD REACH 50-70 KNOTS WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH THAT
VERY CLOSELY.
WE'LL CONTINUE TO HAVE NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WITH
AT LEAST SOME (25-40 KNOT) MAGNITUDES FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. THIS
WOULD SEEM TO LEND ITSELF TOWARD THE NOTION THAT WE WILL SEE MORE
CHANCES FOR STORMS. HOWEVER, GLOBAL GUIDANCE (AND NBM FROM IT) IS
CUEING IN MORE ON THE IDEA OF DRIER WEATHER AND ANOTHER HEAT WAVE
BEGINNING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THIS
IS A REAL SIGNAL OR A BYPRODUCT OF THE WARM/OVERMIXED BIAS OF GLOBAL
MODELS DURING NORTH AMERICAN SUMMER, BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE IS HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATUS WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. ANY MVFR CEILNGS SHOULD
LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR STRATUS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSAPTE WITH
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR REDEVELOPMENT IS ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS. PROB30 WAS INCLUDED AT KDUA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 71 84 69 87 / 30 20 20 20
HOBART OK 70 89 68 91 / 30 20 20 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 92 71 93 / 30 20 10 10
GAGE OK 65 84 64 87 / 30 20 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 68 84 66 84 / 10 10 10 10
DURANT OK 74 90 72 88 / 30 30 30 30
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ032-042-043-047-048-051-052.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...10
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