905
FXUS64 KOUN 271155
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
655 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1250 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO THE LATE WEEK AND UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
- OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF "WARM UP" WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, COOL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
AFTER ANOTHER RAINY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN, CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WHILE PATCHY DRIZZLE CONTINUES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS
MORNING, ANOTHER ROUND OF ISENTROPIC/WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION (WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDER) IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE BY 2-4
AM.
WHILE INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BEGIN IN AN ARC FROM NORTHWESTERN
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA (I.E., WITHIN THE BROAD AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EARLY THIS WEEK), ACTIVITY SHOULD HASTILY LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. WHILE A FEW LOCALIZED POCKETS OF
(NEW) HEAVIER TOTALS (~1-2") AND FLOODING CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, THIS THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
COMMON/WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE, RAIN/CLOUDS WILL HELP DIVIDE THE FORECAST AREA ON THE
TEMPERATURE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA, POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH CONTINUED NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF A WARM
FRONT, WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE
AUGUST READINGS (MID-80S TO LOW-90S). TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 70S DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHERE MORE PERSISTENT RAIN/CLOUDS HOLD ON
TOWARDS LUNCHTIME.
UNGAR
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY, THOUGH ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL
BEGIN TO ROTATE FROM KANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF OZARKS TOWARDS SUNRISE
THURSDAY MORNING. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW AREAS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY ON THURSDAY
MORNING, THOUGH A BULK OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING DAYTIME AND
EVENING HOURS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY, WITH
RAINY/STORMIEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA DURING THIS TIME. THIS IS LIKELY TO INCLUDE SOME RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY BY
THE EVENING INTO EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
INSTABILITY AND INCREASED WIND SHEAR (IN RESPONSE TO THE NEARBY
WAVE/ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW) WILL OFFER CONCERN FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR WEST CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL EMERGES, WE WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE MENTIONS OF STORMS
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL CONTINUE ALONG/NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS EARLY IN THE MORNING ON FRIDAY,
THOUGH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ARRIVE. ANOTHER VERY COOL (70S TO LOW-80S) DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
WITHIN A POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS AND WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
CONTINUING. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO SPREAD FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS.
UNGAR
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
THE GENERALLY WEAK NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW REGIME LOOKS TO
REMAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WHILE SLOWLY MODERATING DURING THIS PERIOD, TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE (80S) THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. WE WILL
MAINTAIN LOW-MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS. WHILE GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL MAY EXIST
WITH THUNDERSTORMS, NO OBVIOUS SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
IS EVIDENT FOR OUR AREA AT THIS UPDATE.
UNGAR
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE
WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING, EXCEPT FOR VFR CONDITIONS IN PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS INCLUDING KSPS AND KLAW. THE
SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING AND MAINLY BE AN ISSUE IN
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY RISE
TODAY, ALTHOUGH MAY REMAIN MVFR IN SOME AREAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
(AND ASSOCIATED MVFR OR EVEN LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS) ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 81 69 89 65 / 40 10 50 50
HOBART OK 88 72 96 65 / 10 10 20 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 91 74 97 69 / 10 0 20 40
GAGE OK 83 66 82 60 / 50 20 10 20
PONCA CITY OK 75 64 78 61 / 80 50 80 30
DURANT OK 86 71 94 70 / 20 10 40 70
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...26
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