251
FXUS64 KOUN 280411
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1111 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1103 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
MOST OF THE MORNING CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS
OF EARLY AFTERNOON. A TRAILING MCV WILL SKIRT THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS
BORDER THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON, BUT IS GENERALLY BECOMING LESS
DEFINED. THIS MAY HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS MAINLY FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
ELSEWHERE, HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
CAMS SUGGEST A FEW STORMS MAY FORM DURING PEAK HEATING. IF STORMS
DEVELOP, A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT OVERALL SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK. WITH LIMITED COVERAGE, THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. A MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
FORM DURING THE EVENING WITH THE NOSE OF THE JET OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS, AND A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS KANSAS.
HOWEVER, A DEEP ENOUGH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IMPINGING ON THE LOW LEVEL
JET (WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO VEER OVERNIGHT) WILL LIKELY BRING AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS
AREA HAS MISSED OUT ON THE HEAVIER RAINFALL THIS WEEK, SO WE WILL
NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
SEVERAL CAMS SUGGEST AN MCS OVER KANSAS WILL BEGIN TO OR WILL
ALREADY BE IMPACTING PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY.
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS ALONG WITH
LIGHTNING. AT THIS TIME WE WILL CONTINUE WITH RATHER HIGH POPS FOR
THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE MORNING RAIN MAY DISSIPATE OR
BE CONFINED TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY EARLY AFTERNOON, AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE VERY TRICKY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SURGES WELL
SOUTH INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND
SOME HAIL. DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT/OUTFLOW, MOST OF
THE STORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHERN
TEXAS BY SUNSET ( ~ 8 PM).
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA FRIDAY MORNING NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS, NORTHEAST AND EAST WINDS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING SHOULD
SUPPORT BETTER STORM CHANCES TO OUR WEST. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
THE GENERALLY WEAK NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW REGIME LOOKS TO
REMAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WHILE SLOWLY MODERATING DURING THIS PERIOD, TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE (80S) THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. WE WILL
MAINTAIN LOW-MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS. WHILE GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL MAY EXIST
WITH THUNDERSTORMS, NO OBVIOUS SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
IS EVIDENT FOR OUR AREA AT THIS UPDATE.
UNGAR
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
THE STRATUS DECK FROM TODAY CONTINUES ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM NORMAN TO ALVA. IN ADDITION, LOW CLOUD COVER IS RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS ARE IN THE MVFR/IFR RANGE. THOSE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE STORMS WILL SHIFT WINDS
FROM SOUTHERLY/EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY, AND CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MVFR/IFR IN AREAS WHERE THEY ALREADY ARE DURING THE
DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE RED RIVER
VICINITY DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
EXPANSION OF POSTFRONTAL STRATUS IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AFTER SUNSET.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 81 69 88 66 / 40 20 60 50
HOBART OK 88 71 97 66 / 10 10 20 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 91 73 99 69 / 10 10 10 50
GAGE OK 83 67 82 61 / 60 40 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 75 64 75 62 / 80 80 90 30
DURANT OK 86 70 95 70 / 60 10 50 80
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...04
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