561
FXUS64 KOUN 290549
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
- CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
SOME SIGNS FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT THAT WILL LIKELY
LINGER AT LEAST THROUGH MID-MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
CURRENTLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG, BUT SOME
ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VISIBILITIES OF
AROUND 1 MILE.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE, MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE DAY WITH CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS. MOST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE HIGHS TODAY SOME 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE
AUGUST.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
BY AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION DEVELOP AND THEN
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS SOUTHWARD INTO THE OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. MANY
OF THE MODELS SHOW THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY, WHILE THE PANHANDLE STORMS MAKE MORE OF AN IMPACT.
ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER RISK APPEARS MINIMAL, SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS (1-2 INCHES). CHANCES DO REACH INTO CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE STATE, WITH THE BEST CHANCE EARLY ON SATURDAY WITH
SOME LOWER POPS LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AMOUNTS IN THESE
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AGAIN, MAIN IMPACTS WILL REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SOME RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA, BUT MUCH LIKE SATURDAY, HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. SOME ONE TO TWO INCH AMOUNTS LOOK POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND CONTINUE TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT
IS TYPICAL FOR LATE AUGUST, SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
A LARGER SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS ON MONDAY ALONG
WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ON MONDAY, ALBEIT LOW, MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT WILL ALSO LIMIT OUR WARM UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A MILD AND DRY
PERIOD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE SHOWING A MUCH
STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE, NORTHWEST FLOW AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
STORMS THIS EVENING ARE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS AND WILL WEAKEN/MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER NIGHTFALL.
SHORTLY AFTER 0Z, THE STRATUS DECK THAT PERSISTS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST AGAIN. EXPECTING THIS
STRATUS DECK TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND WITH LOWER CEILINGS THAN
OTHERS THIS WEEK - WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
MORNING. FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IF THEY DO AT
ALL DURING THE DAYTIME. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 74 66 76 66 / 10 20 40 30
HOBART OK 80 66 80 66 / 10 50 70 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 80 68 80 68 / 10 50 70 50
GAGE OK 78 62 77 61 / 10 60 60 50
PONCA CITY OK 77 64 79 64 / 10 20 20 20
DURANT OK 77 69 79 69 / 30 30 40 30
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04
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