977
FXUS64 KOUN 300541
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1241 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1239 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
- CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
STORMS TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE AS THEY APPROACH WESTERN OKLAHOMA. SOME
ISOLATED HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT CHANCES
OF THAT OCCURRING LOOK MINIMAL.
SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS NORTH
TEXAS. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL
LIMIT DAYTIME INSOLATION, KEEPING ANY STORMS WILL BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 70S
AND LOWER 80S, SOME 15-20 DEGREES BELOW LATE AUGUST NORMS.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
MODELS SHOW MULTIPLE MINOR SHORTWAVES MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND PLAINS SATURDAY AND WITH THIS EXPECT TO SEE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION DEVELOP A BIT FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE OF HOLDING TOGETHER THIS EVENING AND MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW, HOWEVER
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
MEANWHILE, A STRONGER MORE COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
PERHAPS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT, THE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
THE INITIAL FRONT BECOMES A BIT ILL-DEFINED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS INTO THE
OZARKS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. AS THIS OCCURS, IT WILL BRING A BIT OF
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD, WHICH WILL PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AND AID IN PRODUCING AN AREA OF PRECIP,
MAINLY ALONG AN EAST OF I-35 MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. WESTERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD FINALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE THE SUN TUESDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEMS
FINALLY GIVE US A BREAK AND SHIFT TO OUR EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
RESPOND, BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY,
PUTTING A STOP TO ANY WARMING TREND WE MIGHT OF HAD MOVING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO TAP INTO SOME MOISTURE AS IT
MOVES THROUGH GIVING PARTS OF THE AREA ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS.
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY, BUT MANY AREAS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 70S BY THURSDAY.
WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS, OVERNIGHT LOW WILL DROP INTO THE 50S BY
THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
LOW CEILING WILL KEEP OUR TERMINALS ACROSS CENTRAL OK IN IFR
CATEGORY THROUGH 10Z THEN IMPROVE TO AN MVFR CATEGORY AT LEAST
UNTIL 01Z, WHILE OUR TWO TERMINALS IN NORTHCENTRAL OK CURRENTLY IN
A VFR CATEGORY IS EXPECTED TO DEGRADE TO A MVFR CATEGORY BY 09Z
AT LEAST THROUGH 01Z. CEILING OVER OUR TERMINALS IN WESTERN OK &
NORTHERN TX CURRENTLY IN A MVFR CATEGORY IS EXPECTED TO DEGRADE
TO IFR CATEGORY BY 08Z AND MAY NOT IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS
TILL 15Z WHILE OUR LONE TERMINAL KDUA IN SOUTHEAST OK SHOULD
REMAIN IN IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR CATEGORY THROUGH 16Z. A STORM
SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES MAY START
IMPACTING OUR WESTERN TERMINALS BY 09Z WITH TSRA AND A REDUCTION
IN VISIBILITY IN RAIN. THIS SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO CENTRAL OK BY 14Z
WHERE PROB30S ARE IN PLACE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 77 68 79 66 / 40 60 50 20
HOBART OK 81 67 85 65 / 70 80 40 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 82 69 83 67 / 60 70 60 20
GAGE OK 77 63 82 59 / 80 60 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 78 66 78 62 / 40 70 60 30
DURANT OK 81 70 81 67 / 30 60 60 30
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...68
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