327
FXUS64 KOUN 120348
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1048 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1013 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
- HOT/ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PERHAPS WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
HOT AND DRY SENSIBLE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AREAWIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY. A MORE EXPANSIVE PROFILE
OF LOW TO MID-90S AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED GIVEN
LESS (NEAR-ZERO) CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
UNGAR
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH HOT AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS AND
NIL WEATHER IMPACT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RUN IN
THE LOW TO MID-90S AREAWIDE WITH PASSING AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS AND A
MODEST SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER EASTWARD
TOWARDS/ACROSS THE GREAT DIVIDE BY SATURDAY, WITH THE EXPECTATION
FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES "DOWN" A TOUCH (IN THE UPPER-80S) ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BY SATURDAY EVENING/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS
AS PREVIOUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SLIDES
EASTWARD. ON AVERAGE, GUIDANCE IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER IN THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS EXPECTED ACTIVITY, WHICH MAY LIMIT REALIZED
RAIN/STORM COVERAGE MORE THAN OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST WOULD
INDICATE. THIS TREND WILL BE WATCHED OVER COMING UPDATES.
UNGAR
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS STARTS MOVING IN SUNDAY WITH POPS INCREASING
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA MAY REMAIN UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A
THUNDERSTORM ALTHOUGH MOSTLY RAIN PRECIPITATION, MUCH OF IT ENHANCED
AS WELL DURING THE MORNING HOURS BY A LOW-LEVEL JET. POPS ACROSS OUR
WEST WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. MODELS SUGGEST AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN IN THE UPPER FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH VERY WEAK RIDGING DOWN
AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THE WEAK RIDGING WILL KEEP
OUR TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ALSO
SUGGEST THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. OF THIS BLOCKING SYSTEM
OPENING AS A TROUGH AND START DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL & SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY MID-WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF RAIN/STORM CHANCES TO OUR
AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
VEER A BIT FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND INCREASE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME GUSTS OVER 20KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WEST. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 68 93 70 91 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 67 96 69 93 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 68 95 70 93 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 67 93 66 89 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 66 94 69 93 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 67 94 70 92 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...30
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page