529
FXUS64 KOUN 131836
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
136 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 136 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
- HOT/ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
- SCATTERED RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
(WEST) WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND LATE SUNDAY
(NORTHWEST)
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH, CURRENTLY SPINNING
OVER SOUTHERN UTAH, WILL CONTINUE TO FEED PACIFIC MOISTURE AND INCREASING
MID-/HIGH- LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FA AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED QUICKLY THUS FAR TODAY WITH GUSTY S/SSW WINDS, AND HIGHS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 90'S. THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION COULD REACH AND DESTABILIZE A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA BY EVENING. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LARGE DISCREPANCY IN MODELS,
RAIN/STORM CHANCES ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A
ZONE OF INCREASING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LOOKS PROBABLE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAWN. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
AS DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW, WILL SEE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH CLEARING SKIES OVER
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY MID-DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS TOMORROW MORNING, WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY REACHING
NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODERATELY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT,
THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
NORTHWEST/WESTERN OKLAHOMA. LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE
MAIN HAZARDS. TEMPERATURE-WISE, HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
THOSE OBSERVED TODAY. POPS FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.
ON MONDAY, THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL LEAD TO MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES,
SCATTERED CLOUDS, AND REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
EARLY SIGNS POINT TO CONTINUED "WARM" (BY MID-SEPTEMBER STANDARDS)
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS REMAINS SOMEWHAT MUDDLED IN GRAND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER TROUGH TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS ARE CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA, IN RESPONSE TO A TRAILING SURFACE FRONT FROM THIS
FEATURE. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 80S TO
LOW-90S, RUNNING +5-10 DEGREES COMPARED TO SEASONAL AVERAGE.
UNGAR
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
TEXAS WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WILL ADD A MENTION OF RAIN AND PERHAPS STORMS MAINLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY, BUT THE PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE EARLIER. OTHERWISE, A
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 71 88 70 89 / 0 10 20 10
HOBART OK 70 89 67 92 / 10 30 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 72 92 70 91 / 0 10 10 20
GAGE OK 66 84 62 88 / 40 50 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 70 89 68 92 / 0 10 20 10
DURANT OK 70 92 70 92 / 0 0 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...06
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