136
FXUS64 KOUN 141741
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1241 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
- HOT/ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- A MID-WEEK COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND
NEAR- NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
A PASSING NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT LEE
TROUGHING THIS MORNING WILL HELP TO AID WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS
AND STORMS EASTWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AROUND, BUT MOSTLY AFTER SUNRISE. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT DAYTIME HEATING, ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH THE PASSING SURFACE TROUGH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. HIGHS TODAY WILL STILL REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
PEEKS OF SUNSHINE WITH CLEARING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. AMPLE
MLCAPE ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND MODEST SHEAR AROUND 20-30 KNOTS WILL
SUPPORT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH WITH THE SETTING SUN AND COOLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES LATE
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THERE IS A LOW SIGNAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS MONDAY MORNING. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. THE WEAK SHORTWAVE LINGERING
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY
LOW AT THIS TIME WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MENTION IN POPS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER WAVE, THE NEXT POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH AXIS WILL DIG INTO THE MOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO ONCE AGAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, SIMILAR TO MONDAY. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH MAY RESULT IN SOME DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE TROUGH AND
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE PASSING TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BRING "COOLER" NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S. MODEL SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR INTO OKLAHOMA,
WHICH MAY KEEP THE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES STICKING AROUND FOR A
BIT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD/HALF OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY, ESPECIALLY NEAR CSM. STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO FORM NEAR A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE/NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS ALONG WITH A RISK OF HAIL
AND STRONG, GUSTY WINDS. AFTER 3Z SUNDAY, ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
REMAIN WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A SOUTHERLY WIND IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z MONDAY, EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 89 70 88 / 20 10 10 20
HOBART OK 66 90 67 90 / 20 20 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 90 70 90 / 20 20 0 10
GAGE OK 61 88 64 87 / 60 10 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 68 92 68 91 / 20 10 10 10
DURANT OK 70 93 69 92 / 10 20 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...06
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