387
FXUS64 KOUN 141844
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
144 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 143 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- A MID-WEEK COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
A FEW STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA (A BIT
EARLIER THAN EXPECTED), AND WE EXPECT THIS DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE AREA. CLEARING OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA HAS HEATED
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 80'S AND THE RAP INDICATES CAMS SUGGEST
MLCAPE REMAINING WITHIN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RAP MODEL, HOWEVER, SUGGESTS INSTABILITY COULD BE
HIGHER (MAINLY OVER HARPER COUNTY), WITH OVER 2000 J/KG. THE SAME
MODEL PREDICTS CAPE WITHIN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE TO PEAK BETWEEN
700-900 J/KG. THE LATEST VWP FROM KVNX RADAR SHOWS THE CURRENT 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 20 KNOTS, AND THIS IS PROG'D TO INCREASE
TO NEAR 35 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OVER NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR,
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE (PERHAPS VERY
LARGE) HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
WITH A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL PROG'D (LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE),WE WILL ALSO BE WATCHING FOR FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL. WITH THE MAIN MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA DISPLACED FAR
TO THE NORTH, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WITHIN
AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNSET.
A SECOND AREA TO WATCH FOR STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, AS SOME OF THE CAMS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT
NEAR A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY AND WITHIN A PLUME OF HIGH
THETA-E. THE STORM POTENTIAL IS LESS CERTAIN HERE AS THE ATMOSPHERE
COULD BE A BIT TOO STABLE FROM TODAY'S CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. PLUS,
SHEAR IS MUCH WEAKER IN THIS AREA WHICH COULD DAMPEN INTENSIFICATION
EFFORTS. SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS LINGER ALONG WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT DUE TO LOW-LEVEL WAA.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH REACHES CANADA. LOW
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN AND BENIGN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80'S TO LOW 90'S.
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE PASSING TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BRING "COOLER" NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S. MODEL SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR INTO OKLAHOMA,
WHICH MAY KEEP THE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES STICKING AROUND FOR A
BIT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD/HALF OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY, ESPECIALLY NEAR CSM. STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO FORM NEAR A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE/NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS ALONG WITH A RISK OF HAIL
AND STRONG, GUSTY WINDS. AFTER 3Z SUNDAY, ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
REMAIN WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A SOUTHERLY WIND IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z MONDAY, EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 88 70 89 70 / 20 20 10 10
HOBART OK 88 66 90 67 / 60 20 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 92 70 90 70 / 10 20 20 0
GAGE OK 85 61 88 64 / 50 60 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 90 68 92 68 / 30 20 10 10
DURANT OK 92 70 93 69 / 10 10 20 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...06
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page