207
FXUS64 KOUN 151809
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
109 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 109 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE.
- MEDIUM-HIGH CHANCES (40% TO 70%) FOR RAIN RETURN ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
A WEAK SHORTWAVE LINGERING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE FA. GIVEN WEAK FORCING, PREDICTABILITY
IN LOCATION OF UPDRAFTS IS RATHER LOW. THUS, POPS REMAIN LESS THAN
20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
INVERTED-V PROFILES WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY WITHIN THE HAIL-GROWTH
ZONE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THEREFORE, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW AN AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WITH WEAK SHEAR, STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 80'S
(NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF OKLAHOMA) TO MID 90'S AND OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE INTO THE 60'S TO LOW 70'S.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT, THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN, WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR
ON TUESDAY TO THOSE SEEN ON MONDAY - HIGHS IN THE 80S/90'S,
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD-COVER, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND THE
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z HRRR
SUGGESTS THE POPCORN CONVECTION COULD BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ON
TUESDAY. STORM WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS TOWARDS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA,
WILL RAISE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES CONSIDERABLY ON WEDNESDAY -
ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM THE LOW-80'S (NORTHWEST OK) TO THE MID-90'S
(SOUTHERN COUNTIES).
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DAILY RAIN CHANCES. BASED ON
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, THERE IS A MEDIUM-TO-HIGH (50-70%) CHANCE FOR
GREATER THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATED RAINFALL THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEKEND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND A LOW-TO-
MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT NEAR-
NORMAL IN THE 80S WITH A FEW WEAK "COOL" FRONTS AND INCREASED
RAIN/CLOUD CHANCES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE, WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS.
OTHERWISE, A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL WITH AFTERNOON CU
DEVELOPING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY REMAIN AFTER SUNSET WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 89 69 88 / 10 10 10 40
HOBART OK 68 93 67 92 / 10 10 10 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 92 69 92 / 10 10 10 20
GAGE OK 63 89 64 85 / 10 0 30 60
PONCA CITY OK 67 91 67 90 / 20 10 10 40
DURANT OK 68 93 69 93 / 10 10 10 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...06
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