549
FXUS64 KOUN 161716
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1206 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, THE STRONGEST OF
WHICH WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 60 MPH.
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN CONTINUES ALONG THE LONGITUDE OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY. OUR NECK OF THE WOODS IS DOWN AT THE BASE
OF THE RIDGE AND WE'LL THUS HAVE ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. THERE'S SOME LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S), SO WITH ENOUGH SURFACE
HEATING WE SHOULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TODAY SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK, BUT THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL (MAYBE TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES
OR NICKELS) AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. THIS SPORADIC
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELIEST IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING ABOUT 90.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
A MORE ROBUST AREA OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING ON THE
HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE EASTWARD. CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA HAS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF BEING CLIPPED BY THESE STORMS
BEFORE DAYBREAK TOMORROW. SEVERE WEATHER ISN'T ANTICIPATED.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE FIRST DAY OF A PATTERN SHIFT AS A BROAD,
NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HEIGHT FALLS AT THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
TROUGHING WILL BE SUFFICIENT THAT WE SHOULD EXPECT ONE OR MORE
ROUNDS OF ROBUST STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG AND BEHIND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND
BY THE OVERNIGHT STORMS TONIGHT. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, ABL MOISTURE
MIGHT BE A LITTLE SCARCE FOR ROBUST STORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE RISK
FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE ACCORDINGLY STRONGER. RIGHT
NOW, WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STEADY FROM TODAY INTO
TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THAT BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, WE'LL NEED TO
WATCH THE AREA NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS A POTENTIAL "TARGET OF
OPPORTUNITY" WHERE OUR CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS MIGHT BE TOO WARM.
THE SURFACE PATTERN MIGHT BE A LITTLE MESSY/DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE
DETAILS ON THURSDAY, BUT A FEW THINGS ARE APPARENT. FIRST OF ALL,
WITH THE TROUGHING REMAINING IN PLACE (AND ACTUALLY POTENTIALLY
BUILDING A LITTLE CLOSER), WE WILL AGAIN SEE STORM CHANCES DURING
THE DAY. IN FACT, STORM COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON
THURSDAY THAN WEDNESDAY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION, THOUGH QUESTIONS LINGER ABOUT HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT FAVORS
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING.
SPEAKING OF CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING, THE OTHER APPARENT FORECAST
TREND FOR THURSDAY: COOLER TEMPERATURES. RIGHT NOW, OUR FORECAST
CALLS FOR MOST SPOTS TO BE 3-6 DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY THAN
WEDNESDAY. THAT MIGHT END UP BEING A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE DEPENDING
ON HOW THE FORECAST PANS OUT.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
THE TROUGHING REGIME WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD THAT A BOUNDARY REMAINS IN OUR AREA FROM THE
PREVIOUS DAY'S STORMS, WE WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A CHANCE OF MORE
RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
TROUGH/JET MAX MOVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
PREDICTABILITY STARTS TO DECREASE IN THIS PERIOD, BUT THE PATTERN
WILL FAVOR MORE CHANCES FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED RAIN AND STORMS ALONG
WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL RESULT IN FURTHER CU DEVELOPMENT AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. CLOUD BASES WILL BE IN THE VFR
CATEGORY, BUT A STORM OR TWO MAY CERTAINLY LOWER VISIBILITY BELOW
4 MILES OR SO. WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED, WILL NOT
MENTION IN TAFS. OTHERWISE, THE CU AND PRECIPITATION WILL END BY
1-2Z. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL AT MAINLY LIGHT SPEEDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 68 89 67 85 / 0 30 30 60
HOBART OK 67 92 66 89 / 0 30 40 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 68 93 69 90 / 0 10 20 40
GAGE OK 64 84 61 80 / 30 50 70 40
PONCA CITY OK 66 89 66 84 / 10 30 50 50
DURANT OK 69 93 69 91 / 0 10 10 40
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...06
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