580
FXUS64 KOUN 170347
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1047 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1044 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE
STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 60 MPH.
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH
CONTINUED ABOVE-AVERAGE WARMTH, REMAINS THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
TODAY. THE PERSISTENT OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN FROM PRIOR DAYS WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN, LEAVING BEHIND WEAK/NEBULOUS UPPER FLOW
OVERHEAD. OVER THE COMING HOURS (~1-3 PM), THE COMBINATION OF DEEP
VERTICAL MIXING AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A PRIMARY RISK FOR WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH, ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN STORM-FREE TODAY, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES, A LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZE AND WARM TEMPERATURES (UPPER-
80S/LOW-90S).
UNGAR
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
HIGHER CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES TOWARDS DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER
LOW WILL BEGIN TO MEANDER EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. AN INITIAL BOUT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING TIED TO THE APPROACH OF A WEAK (POSSIBLY CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED) SURFACE FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH AIRMASS RECOVERY
OCCURS IN VICINITY OF HIS FEATURE INTO THE AFTERNOON, ANOTHER
ROUND OF (SCATTERED) STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY EARLY DAY
RAIN/CLOUDS, AND LOOK TO BE THE LOCALLY "COOLEST" (LOW-80S).
OTHERWISE, UPPER-80S TO LOW-90S WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA.
THE BASE OF THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE CLOSER BY THURSDAY, WHEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE PATTERN MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT COMPLEX BY
THIS TIME, WITH POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE WEAK FRONTS AND/OR CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS. WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE ENHANCED WIND FIELD (AND RESULTANT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAGNITUDES), A BOUT OF MORE ORGANIZED (SEVERE)
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. RIGHT NOW, THIS POTENTIAL WOULD BE FAVORED ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. RATHER SIGNIFICANT SPATIOTEMPORAL
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THIS RISK, SO THOSE WITH OUTDOOR
INTERESTS ON THURSDAY ARE ADVERTISED TO CHECK BACK OVER COMING
FORECAST UPDATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN COOLER (ESPECIALLY NORTH) ON
THURSDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN/CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A LUCKY FEW ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA MAY
REMAIN IN THE 70S PENDING EVOLUTION OF ABOVE DISCUSSED FEATURES.
UNGAR
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
THE TROUGHING REGIME WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD THAT A BOUNDARY REMAINS IN OUR AREA FROM THE
PREVIOUS DAY'S STORMS, WE WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A CHANCE OF MORE
RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
TROUGH/JET MAX MOVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
PREDICTABILITY STARTS TO DECREASE IN THIS PERIOD, BUT THE PATTERN
WILL FAVOR MORE CHANCES FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED RAIN AND STORMS ALONG
WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN INTO WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA (KWWR, KPNC, AND KCSM).
PROB30S WERE INCLUDED AT THESE TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
ELSEWHERE, COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS.
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 90 68 86 / 20 20 20 50
HOBART OK 67 92 67 89 / 20 10 30 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 69 94 70 91 / 20 10 10 20
GAGE OK 64 85 61 79 / 20 40 70 50
PONCA CITY OK 66 89 66 84 / 20 40 50 60
DURANT OK 69 94 69 91 / 20 10 10 30
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...10
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