971
FXUS64 KOUN 171153
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
653 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 620 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
- PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN
NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA, WITH CHANCES MOVING SOUTHWARD
TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN BRIEFLY LATE THIS WEEK AND AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
KEY POINT: STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION: CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH STORMS INTENSIFYING ON THE
HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF IT. A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS IS LOCATED
IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ADVANCED SOUTHWARD TOWARD
IT. MODEST OVERALL INSTABILITY (MUCAPE NEAR 1,000 J/KG) MEANS WE CAN
EXPECT THAT CLUSTER TO LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
POTENTIALLY ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY'S MOTION.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR RENEWED STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
POSTFRONTAL REGIME WILL BE COOLER BUT ALSO MORE HUMID, WHICH
COMBINED WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY (1,000-2,000 J/KG MLCAPE). WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
PARALLEL TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT A CLUSTERING STORM
MODE, SO RAIN CHANCES NEAR THE BOUNDARY WILL ACTUALLY BE FAIRLY HIGH
(40-60 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER ISN'T ANTICIPATED, BUT
WITH SOME DRYNESS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR 60 MPH DOWNBURSTS WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. ELSEWHERE,
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL WITH ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
KEY POINTS: RATHER WIDESPREAD STORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
WITH A COOLDOWN INTO FRIDAY.
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION: SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER
ACROSS MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE A SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE COMPOSITE COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MOST CAM GUIDANCE DEPICTS
IT REACHING I-40 ON THURSDAY MORNING AND SETTING UP IN SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AROUND THE TIME THAT TEMPERATURES WARM UP ENOUGH FOR
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION INITIATION IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN,
THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PROFILES AREN'T OVERWHELMINGLY
IMPRESSIVE FOR ANY ONE HAZARD, BUT THE LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS APPLIES -
GIVEN ENOUGH STORMS, IT'S PROBABLE THAT A FEW OF THEM ARE STRONG TO
SEVERE, AND LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE TOO.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY,
AND MIGHT WELL MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA ENTIRELY. HOWEVER, WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY, THERE WILL BE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT, SO ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL OFF CLOSER TO NORMAL
IN RESPONSE TO THIS NORTHWEST FLOW.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
KEY POINTS: DAILY RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHEN
ANOTHER COOLDOWN IS LIKELY TO OCCUR.
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION: ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE REACH OF OUR AREA, FULL
RIDGING IS NOT LIKELY TO RETURN. THIS IS BECAUSE THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL REDEVELOP FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MEXICAN
HIGHLANDS, LEAVING US IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ZONE ON ITS NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY. BECAUSE OF THAT, AT LEAST LOW (20-40) PERCENT CHANCES OF
RAIN ARE EXPECTED ON BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I-44. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO WARM UP SOME AND
SETTLE BACK IN ABOVE NORMAL.
A PATTERN FLIP IS LIKELY BEGINNING ON MONDAY AS ONE OF THE FIRST
TRUE FALL TROUGHS OF THE YEAR TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THOUGH MOST OF THE TROUGHING WILL MISS US TO THE
NORTH, GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING AT ITS BASE.
THAT WILL HELP COOL OFF OUR TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
BRING IN MORE RAIN CHANCES. WE MIGHT FINALLY BEGIN TO DRY OUT ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO WANDER EAST.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THIS MORNING
NEAR WWR, SO NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED. HOWEVER, IF A STORM WERE TO
DEVELOP THEN GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA (WWR) AND LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR STORM COVERAGE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA (CSM AND PNC). STORM COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD,
BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW ON EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH AND THUS NO
MENTION WAS GIVEN DURING THIS TAF ISSUANCE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
SITES. WITH ANY STORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT
WILL TURN NORTHERLY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH A PASSING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 91 68 87 65 / 20 20 50 50
HOBART OK 93 66 90 63 / 30 20 40 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 69 91 68 / 0 0 20 40
GAGE OK 82 60 80 58 / 60 50 60 30
PONCA CITY OK 91 65 85 63 / 30 30 50 70
DURANT OK 94 69 93 68 / 0 10 20 50
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...23
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