102
FXUS64 KOUN 171739
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1236 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
- PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN
NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA, WITH CHANCES MOVING SOUTHWARD
TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN BRIEFLY LATE THIS WEEK AND AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
KEY POINT: STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF A BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION: WITH RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA,
SURFACE ANALYSIS IS RATHER MESSY SHOWING MULTIPLE WEAK BOUNDARIES
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA / KANSAS / THE PANHANDLES. THE UPPER LOW
WILL BE A DRIVING MECHANISM FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOCUSING THE HIGHEST POPS IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. MOST CAMS DON'T START THIS BACK UP UNTIL AFTER 3PM.
HREF SUGGEST AROUND 1500 JOULES OF CAPE AND NO MORE THAN ABOUT 30
KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
BRIEF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS (WITH WIND AS THE PRIMARY THREAT).
INSTABILITY WILL WANE QUICKLY IN THE EVENING, BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
KEY POINTS: SCATTERED STORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH A
COOLDOWN INTO FRIDAY.
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER (UPPER 70S /
LOWER 80S) ACROSS THIS AREA.
ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW WILL PROVIDE SOME SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS INTO
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT MORE UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY (MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S) BEHIND THESE BOUNDARIES.
DAY
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
KEY POINTS: DAILY RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHEN
ANOTHER COOLDOWN IS LIKELY TO OCCUR.
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION: ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE REACH OF OUR AREA, FULL
RIDGING IS NOT LIKELY TO RETURN. THIS IS BECAUSE THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL REDEVELOP FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MEXICAN
HIGHLANDS, LEAVING US IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ZONE ON ITS NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY. BECAUSE OF THAT, AT LEAST LOW (20-40) PERCENT CHANCES OF
RAIN ARE EXPECTED ON BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I-44. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO WARM UP SOME AND
SETTLE BACK IN ABOVE NORMAL.
A PATTERN FLIP IS LIKELY BEGINNING ON MONDAY AS ONE OF THE FIRST
TRUE FALL TROUGHS OF THE YEAR TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THOUGH MOST OF THE TROUGHING WILL MISS US TO THE
NORTH, GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING AT ITS BASE.
THAT WILL HELP COOL OFF OUR TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
BRING IN MORE RAIN CHANCES. WE MIGHT FINALLY BEGIN TO DRY OUT ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO WANDER EAST.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
PREDOMINATELY VFR CATEGORY IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (AFTER ~19-20 UTC). THIS ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT
KWWR (AT LEAST FOR A TIME), OFFERING POTENTIAL FOR LOWERED VIS
AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THIS ACTIVITY
SPREADS AS FAR SOUTHWARD AS KCSM NEAR SUNSET, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY
IS HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE HIGHLIGHTS.
SCATTERED RAIN/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SLOWLY SOUTH AND
EAST EARLY ON THURSDAY MORNING, WITH LOW PROBABILITY POTENTIAL FOR
TERMINAL IMPACT AFTER DAYBREAK AT KPNC/KSWO. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT,
LIKELY ENHANCED BY CONVECTION THIS EVENING, WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL. THIS WILL OFFER A
MORE SUSTAINED NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT AT NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 68 86 64 86 / 10 30 50 20
HOBART OK 66 89 62 90 / 20 30 40 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 69 91 66 91 / 0 20 30 20
GAGE OK 60 76 57 84 / 60 50 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 66 84 62 86 / 30 40 50 10
DURANT OK 69 93 68 89 / 0 20 50 40
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...09
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