308
FXUS64 KOUN 181138
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
638 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 614 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
- PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT, WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY MOVING SOUTH AND
EASTWARD.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
POTENTIALLY COOLING DOWN ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED
ROUGHLY AROUND I-44. A SECOND BOUNDARY IS ENTERING NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
FROM THE NORTH. WHILE THERE IS MODEST INSTABILITY IN FRONT OF THE
BOUNDARIES, STORM COVERAGE NEAR/BEHIND THEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MORE ROBUST CHANCE FOR EARLY-MORNING
STORMS WILL COME AS A CLUSTER CURRENTLY RANGING FROM THE PANHANDLES
UP INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO SWINGS SOUTH AND EAST INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED EARLY THIS
MORNING, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
STORM EVOLUTION THIS MORNING WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ARE REINFORCED, WHICH IN TURN WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE
COMPOSITE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STORMS
REDEVELOP. MOST WEATHER MODELS ARE LIKELY TO END UP TOO FAR NORTH
WITH THE BOUNDARY AND REDEVELOPMENT ZONE, GIVEN THAT A PREFERRED
LANDING SPOT FOR THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS AROUND I-40. THE HRRR
MIGHT PROVIDE ONE OF THE BETTER "PROGRESSIVE" EXAMPLES, WITH CI
OCCURRING FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT NORTH
TEXAS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MODEST (40 KNOTS OF CLOUD-LAYER
SHEAR) AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MODEST (UP TO 1,500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE). OVERALL, THIS SHOULD FAVOR CLUSTERS AND MULTICELLS, WITH
SEVERE WIND/HAIL AND MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
CORES.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SHARPLY BIFURCATED - EXTENSIVE CLOUD
DEBRIS NEAR/NORTH OF THE COMPOSITE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP HIGHS CLOSER
TO 80, WHILE THE OPEN WARM SECTOR MAKES ANOTHER RUN AT 90.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST A MODEST EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE LLJ
TONIGHT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS THIS WEEK. THAT COULD MAKE ALL
THE DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD, PROVIDING A FORCING MECHANISM FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO KEEP DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA.
THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS DISTURBED WEATHER WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD HEIGHT RISES ARE
ANTICIPATED, SO WE LOOK TO HAVE A REPRIEVE FROM AT LEAST MORE
WIDESPREAD STORM CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM BACK UP 3-6
DEGREES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THOSE HEIGHT RISES.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT A LITTLE WESTWARD ON SATURDAY,
WHICH WILL GIVE SOME LEEWAY TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW TO
POTENTIALLY INITIATE STORMS ON THE HIGH TERRAIN. THIS MEANS THE
USUAL - A MEDIUM CHANCE OF STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA, WITH STORM CHANCES PEAKING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY ENCOURAGE STRONGER RETURN FLOW AND A DOWNSLOPE ELEMENT TO
WINDS THAT WILL BRING A DOSE OF SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF
THE AREA (ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF IT).
SIMULTANEOUSLY, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES BREACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMP.
STORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH PREPARES
TO EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL TRIGGER A COOLDOWN - NOT TOWARD "FALL",
PER SE, BUT AT LEAST COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE COMING WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOWER ON THOSE DAYS
THAN MOST OF THE REST OF THE COMING WEEK, BUT AT LEAST LOW CHANCES
FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-44.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
INCREASE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. OTHERWISE, MOST SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF ACTIVITY TODAY,
PROB30S WERE MOSTLY USED AT ALL SITES (EXCEPT SPS) TODAY AND
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST FOR PREVAILING WEATHER AT WWR FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER THIS MORNING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHERLY AT MOST
SITES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 86 65 87 69 / 30 40 10 10
HOBART OK 89 62 91 69 / 20 40 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 92 67 92 70 / 30 30 10 0
GAGE OK 76 57 85 65 / 60 10 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 81 62 85 66 / 40 40 10 20
DURANT OK 93 68 90 68 / 30 50 30 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...23
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