031
FXUS64 KOUN 181735
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
- PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT, WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY MOVING SOUTH AND
EASTWARD.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
POTENTIALLY COOLING DOWN ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED AROUND VARIOUS WEAK BOUNDARIES
IN OUR AREA, OF WHICH THE MOST PROMINENT ARE ONE IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA (CAMS FAVOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY) AND ONE IN
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR MAY MARGINALLY SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, WITH WIND AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE AREA, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS (AND A
FEW WEAK STORMS) WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
FRIDAY MAY SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA IN
THE MORNING HOURS, DRYING OUT BY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS
BRIEF LULL, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S TO LOW 90S.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL APPROACH SATURDAY, BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO
THE AREA. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS, EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE, LIGHT
QPF, AND LOW POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM OR TOO. WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, THOUGH CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL POTENTIAL
INTRODUCE SOME UNCERTAINTY.
DAY
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY ENCOURAGE STRONGER RETURN FLOW AND A DOWNSLOPE ELEMENT TO
WINDS THAT WILL BRING A DOSE OF SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF
THE AREA (ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF IT).
SIMULTANEOUSLY, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES BREACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMP.
STORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH PREPARES
TO EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL TRIGGER A COOLDOWN - NOT TOWARD "FALL",
PER SE, BUT AT LEAST COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE COMING WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOWER ON THOSE DAYS
THAN MOST OF THE REST OF THE COMING WEEK, BUT AT LEAST LOW CHANCES
FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-44.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD, CONTINUED (AND ADDITIONAL) COVERAGE OF
SCATTERED RAIN/THUNDER WILL INTRODUCE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN CATEGORY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCE, SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WITH A MIXTURE OF LOW AND MID CLOUD HEIGHTS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 64 85 69 89 / 60 10 10 30
HOBART OK 63 90 68 92 / 40 20 0 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 67 92 70 92 / 30 20 0 20
GAGE OK 57 84 65 87 / 10 0 10 30
PONCA CITY OK 61 85 66 87 / 30 0 20 50
DURANT OK 68 91 67 92 / 40 30 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...09
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page