191
FXUS64 KOUN 041748
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1248 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1246 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY.
- COLD FRONT BRINGS THE RAIN AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY
MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE SUNNY, WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 30 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. SOME MINOR HEIGHT FALLS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THIS OCCURS WITH SOME
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL BE A SIGN OF THINGS
TO COME AS WE GO INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. OTHERWISE, BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
60S.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS A COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, BEING ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE, ANOTHER VERY WARM TO HOT DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
AS A LEAD WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE SURFACE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. WITH THIS
A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY
NIGHT.
FRONT MAKES ONLY MINOR SOUTHWARD PROGRESS INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
MONDAY AS THE BETTER FORCING INITIALLY REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL KEEP ANY RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY AS
AGAIN HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
INCREASE WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL GIVE THE FRONT A BIT OF A PUSH
FARTHER SOUTH AND HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTHWEST
THIRD OF THE AREA. HIGHEST CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME CURRENTLY REMAIN RATHER
MEAGER WITH PERHAPS SOME AREAS PICKING UP AROUND A TENTH TO PERHAPS
A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
MEANWHILE, MODELS ARE BRINGING A WAVE OUT OF THE GULF INTO THE
LOWER/MID MS VALLEY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BRING AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS WELL.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
EARLY MONDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH, INCREASING
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT GUARANTEED,
BUT THE PROBABILITIES BEGIN TO RISE EARLY MONDAY BEFORE MAXIMIZING
MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AS
WELL, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STRUGGLING TO
GET TO 80 DEGREES.
WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAINFALL AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA, THE SAME FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TURN NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT BY THE END OF THE WEEK, PUTTING US RIGHT BACK
WHERE WE STARTED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MID AND UPPER CLOUDS. BREEZY S TO SE
WINDS. LLWS POSSIBLE AT KWWR AND KPNC LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 64 87 64 87 / 0 0 0 10
HOBART OK 64 89 63 88 / 0 0 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 63 89 63 89 / 0 0 0 10
GAGE OK 64 87 63 83 / 0 0 10 20
PONCA CITY OK 64 89 63 88 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 62 88 65 87 / 0 0 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...25
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