200
FXUS64 KOUN 061038
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
538 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1232 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
- RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING THRU TUESDAY (MAINLY
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN OK).
- A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES INTO KANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MAKING ITS
WAY SLOWLY SOUTH AND EASTWARD. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING IN THESE AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
THE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD TUESDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSES SOUTHERN KANSAS. FORCING FROM THIS WAVE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA DWINDLING THROUGH THE DAY AS IT DOES SO. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY, AS THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A DECENT NORTH-
SOUTH GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR IS MUCH COLDER
WITH HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA VS. MID 60S TO MID 70S ON MOST OTHER GUIDANCE.
NUDGED HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO NBM BUT DIDN'T GO AS FAR AS
THE NAM AT THIS POINT. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FURTHER SOUTH, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO POTENTIALLY UPPER 80S FOR
AREAS NEAR THE RED RIVER.
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS WESTERN OK WITHIN WEAK WAA REGIME, OTHERWISE EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SUNSHINE RETURNS AND UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD RETURN TO THE 70S AND 80S WITH
LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS.
WARE
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
WITH HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. NO FRONTS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. SOME
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST WE COULD SEE A BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE TOWARDS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES, BUT MODEL SPREAD
INCREASES BY THIS TIME SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS SCENARIO.
WARE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 538 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
AVIATION CONCERNS:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
- COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
- MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST AT TIMES TODAY
AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. KWWR WILL BE THE
MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED AND THE ONLY TAF SITE WHERE POTENTIAL
IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME, BUT IT
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AT KPNC AND KCSM AS WELL.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MOVING THROUGH ALL OF THE TAF SITES BY
AROUND SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT (KWWR, KPNC AND KSWO) AND INTO WEST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA (KCSM, KOKC, KOUN) BEFORE SUNRISE.
ALTHOUGH NOT AS CERTAIN, SOME MVFR OR POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE AT KDUA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 87 61 76 58 / 0 10 10 0
HOBART OK 89 59 77 57 / 0 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 89 62 84 60 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 80 53 66 53 / 30 50 30 10
PONCA CITY OK 88 59 72 54 / 10 20 10 0
DURANT OK 88 66 87 63 / 10 0 10 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...26
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