651
FXUS64 KOUN 062327
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
627 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 623 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THRU TUESDAY (MAINLY NORTHWEST/NORTHERN
OK).
- A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY SLOWLY SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE RAIN AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, ELSEWHERE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND RESIDING IN
THE SAME AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS,
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. FORCING FROM THIS WAVE WILL AID IN ELEVATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT,
CLOSER TO THE 85MB BOUNDARY, WHICH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN RATHER LIGHT, BUT MODEL
ENSEMBLE WOULD HAVE A 60-70% PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING A QUARTER OF
AN INCH FROM NEAR ARNETT TO ALVA AND A 30-40% PROBABILITY OF GETTING
IN EXCESS OF A HALF INCH BY TUESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWERS 50S IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF THE AREA NORTHWEST OF I-44 ALSO IN THE 50S BY
MORNING. SIXTIES REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND
AS IT DOES SO, PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER MODELS ARE DEPICTING A WEAKER WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON AMOUNT OF COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
NAM KEEPING SOME MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA IN THE 50S
TUESDAY. FORECAST HAS TRENDED DOWN, BUT NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE
NAM. CURRENTLY GOING WITH THE BLEND WHICH HAS 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA WITH SOME 80S REMAINING ACROSS THE
SOUTH. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS, IF PRECIP AND CLOUD
COVER LINGER MAY NEED TO LOWER HIGHS EVEN MORE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH.
SOME WEAK WAA AND A MINOR SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS WE GO
THROUGH THE NIGHT TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, COOL SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST WITH SOUTH
WINDS RETURNING TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN RESPONSE TO THAT, BUT STILL EXPECTED TO
ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA
WITH 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
WITH HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. NO FRONTS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. SOME
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST WE COULD SEE A BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE TOWARDS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES, BUT MODEL SPREAD
INCREASES BY THIS TIME SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS SCENARIO.
WARE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT KPNC AND KSWO THIS
EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TONIGHT, BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER.
OTHERWISE, A COLD FRONT/NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, MVFR TO IFR STRATUS IS
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. STRATUS MAY PERSIST
AT SOME LOCATIONS INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 60 76 57 78 / 0 10 10 10
HOBART OK 59 77 56 80 / 10 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 61 84 59 83 / 0 10 10 10
GAGE OK 52 65 52 73 / 50 40 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 58 71 54 76 / 20 20 0 10
DURANT OK 65 87 62 83 / 0 10 10 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...10
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