922
FXUS64 KOUN 070543
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1240 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TODAY.
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT HAS TRENDED FASTER THAN FORECAST,
AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM PAWNEE TO NORMAN TO TIPTON. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL EXIT OUR CWA THIS MORNING WITH MODESTLY BREEZY NORTH
WINDS (GUSTS TO 25 MPH) DECREASING AFTER MID-MORNING. SUBSTANTIAL
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND COVERS
MOST OF KANSAS. LOW CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, WE EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD BEHIND
FROPA. HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE STRATUS
WILL REACH. SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, THE BULK
OF THE RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE KANSAS
STATELINE. THIS AFTERNOON, THERE IS A SIGNAL OF PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
NEAR THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER, WITH INSTABILITY
PROG'D TO BE VERY LOW (LESS THAN 400 J/KG), STORM ACTIVITY IS
DOUBTFUL. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
60'S (NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA) TO THE MID-70'S (CENTRAL) AND MID-80S
(SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS).
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVELS WITHIN
THE NEAR-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS,
WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70'S AND
80'S AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES AWAY FROM OUR REGION. BY THURSDAY,
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ONCE AGAIN
OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO AND AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE PLAINS. AS A RESULT, WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND THE LOW-
LEVEL WAA AND INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING (FROM MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES) WILL RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-80'S
ON THURSDAY.
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE LLTR GETS PUSHED INTO OUR AREA BY A STRONG NORTHERN TROUGH.
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH,
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND GUST TO 20 TO 30 MPH OVER THE WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS ON WHETHER A COLD FRONT REACHES OUR AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. NEVERTHELESS, ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING LOW RAIN CHANCES
TO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
A COLD FRONT/NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT--CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
KOKC/KOUN--WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH
THE REMAINING TERMINALS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, MVFR TO IFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS
OF OKLAHOMA. STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT SOME LOCATIONS INTO
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT, BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER.
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 57 79 60 83 / 0 10 0 0
HOBART OK 57 81 59 86 / 10 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 59 83 62 85 / 10 10 0 0
GAGE OK 51 75 57 84 / 20 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 52 76 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 61 83 60 83 / 10 10 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...10
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