505
FXUS64 KOUN 071723
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TODAY.
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT HAS TRENDED FASTER THAN FORECAST,
AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM PAWNEE TO NORMAN TO TIPTON. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL EXIT OUR CWA THIS MORNING WITH MODESTLY BREEZY NORTH
WINDS (GUSTS TO 25 MPH) DECREASING AFTER MID-MORNING. SUBSTANTIAL
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND COVERS
MOST OF KANSAS. LOW CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, WE EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD BEHIND
FROPA. HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE STRATUS
WILL REACH. SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, THE BULK
OF THE RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE KANSAS
STATELINE. THIS AFTERNOON, THERE IS A SIGNAL OF PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
NEAR THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER, WITH INSTABILITY
PROG'D TO BE VERY LOW (LESS THAN 400 J/KG), STORM ACTIVITY IS
DOUBTFUL. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
60'S (NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA) TO THE MID-70'S (CENTRAL) AND MID-80S
(SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS).
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVELS WITHIN
THE NEAR-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS,
WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70'S AND
80'S AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES AWAY FROM OUR REGION. BY THURSDAY,
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ONCE AGAIN
OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO AND AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE PLAINS. AS A RESULT, WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND THE LOW-
LEVEL WAA AND INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING (FROM MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES) WILL RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-80'S
ON THURSDAY.
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE LLTR GETS PUSHED INTO OUR AREA BY A STRONG NORTHERN TROUGH.
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH,
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND GUST TO 20 TO 30 MPH OVER THE WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS ON WHETHER A COLD FRONT REACHES OUR AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. NEVERTHELESS, ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING LOW RAIN CHANCES
TO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS THIS TAF PERIOD. N TO NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SHIFT
TOWARDS THE NE AND E TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM
OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF OK,
GENERALLY NORTH OF I-40. HOWEVER, CHANCES ARE TOO LOW AT ALL BUT
KWWR CURRENTLY FOR MENTION IN TAF. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW WITH THIS ACTIVITY FOR A
MENTION IN ANY TAFS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 57 79 60 / 10 0 10 0
HOBART OK 77 57 81 59 / 10 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 82 59 83 62 / 10 10 10 0
GAGE OK 66 51 75 57 / 30 20 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 72 52 76 58 / 20 0 0 0
DURANT OK 87 61 83 60 / 10 10 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...25
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