805
FXUS64 KOUN 071746
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TODAY AND LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, HOWEVER
STILL THINK EVEN WITH THE EROSION OF THE LOWEST CLOUDS, THERE WILL
REMAIN QUITE A BIT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO LIMIT INSOLATION TODAY.
TEMPS HAVE TRENDED COOLER AS WELL AND MUCH OF THE NORTH AND PERHAPS
EVEN SOUTHWARD TOWARD I-40 MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S THIS
AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA,
TAKING MUCH OF THE PRECIP WITH IT, A WEAK WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ALONG WITH AN ELEVATED BOUNDARY WE MAY SEE A
FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE NORTH. NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION TO SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER FARTHER SOUTH AS WELL.
MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A SHORTWAVE COMING
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT, WHICH MAY LIMIT ANY RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW. AND EVEN
THEN, RAIN CHANCES APPEAR VERY LOW.
OTHERWISE, CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE AND WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE MAY KEEP MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER, COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A FEW LOW 60S ALONG THE RED
RIVER. MAY SEE A FEW UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST, CLOSER IN PROXIMITY
TO THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS WEST/NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA, OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WITH GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES. AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 70S WITH A
SOME LOW/MID 80S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. SOUTH WINDS WILL
RETURN TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND BACK NORTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WHICH WILL MARK
THE START OF ANOTHER WARMING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOUTH WINDS RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
TEMPERATURES RESPOND WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE LLTR GETS PUSHED INTO OUR AREA BY A STRONG NORTHERN TROUGH.
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH,
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND GUST TO 20 TO 30 MPH OVER THE WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS ON WHETHER A COLD FRONT REACHES OUR AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. NEVERTHELESS, ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING LOW RAIN CHANCES
TO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS THIS TAF PERIOD. N TO NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SHIFT
TOWARDS THE NE AND E TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM
OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF OK,
GENERALLY NORTH OF I-40. HOWEVER, CHANCES ARE TOO LOW AT ALL BUT
KWWR CURRENTLY FOR MENTION IN TAF. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW WITH THIS ACTIVITY FOR A
MENTION IN ANY TAFS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 57 79 59 83 / 10 10 0 0
HOBART OK 57 81 59 86 / 10 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 60 83 61 86 / 0 10 0 0
GAGE OK 52 73 57 84 / 10 20 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 53 76 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 62 85 61 83 / 10 10 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...25
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